It's rivalry week in college football, and there's no better rivalry in the SEC than when Auburn and Alabama get together for the Iron Bowl. Unfortunately, this isn't the highly anticipated matchup it normally is because Auburn is just 6-5 in Hugh Freeze's first year at the helm, but that won't stop us from finding a winning bet.
Alabama has looked like a national title contender ever since its 34-24 loss to Texas in Week 2. The Crimson Tide have rattled off nine straight wins since that lone loss, and they'll play Georgia in the SEC Championship with a potential College Football Playoff spot on the line.
All Alabama needs to do to stay alive in the playoff race is go on the road and beat a mediocre Auburn team that lost, 31-10, at home to New Mexico State last week. The Tigers have struggled offensively all season, as they rank dead last in the SEC in passing yards per game and 11th in total offense. That's not a great omen when going up against an Alabama offense that ranks third in the conference in points per game.
It will be tough for Auburn to hang around in this game if it can't generate explosive plays in the passing game.
This is a severe mismatch on paper. Auburn can run the ball and limit possessions, but the offense has been unable to move the ball through the air with Payton Thorne under center. That strategy likely won't fare well against an Alabama defense that ranks 26th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide have been running the ball effectively in recent weeks, and they'll be able to move the ball on the ground against an Auburn defense that ranks 92nd in the country in yards allowed per rush.
Alabama still needs to impress the CFP committee and win with style points, while Auburn is fighting for nothing more than a better bowl game. We think the Tide roll here.
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