2024 New York Mets Q&A: What are their playoff odds, players to watch, biggest question marks?

The New York Mets entered the 2023 season with World Series aspirations and the highest payroll in MLB history. Unfortunately for the Mets, injuries and a 7-19 record in June prompted the front office to tear down the roster at the trade deadline, resulting in a 75-87 finish.

New York spent less this past winter than in recent offseasons, but new president of baseball operations David Stearns is confident that the team he's built can reach the postseason. In preparation for their season opener, here are the answers to some of the biggest questions about the 2024 Mets.

How many games are the Mets projected to win, and what is their season outlook? 

If the oddsmakers' predictions are accurate, New York will improve in the win column, but that will not be enough to secure a playoff berth. 

As per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Mets are projected to win 81.5 games this season and are -250 to miss the playoffs. Additionally, New York has the third-best odds to win the National League East (+1300) and is +4500 to win the World Series, a feat it hasn't accomplished since 1986. 

When is Opening Day, and who will start the Mets’ first game?

The Mets will open the season at Citi Field on Thursday, March 28, hosting the Milwaukee Brewers as part of a three-game set. First pitch for Opening Day is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET, with the game being broadcast on SNY, Bally Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV.

Left-hander Jose Quintana (3.57 ERA in 2023) will take the mound for the Mets, who will attempt to improve upon their MLB-best .661 Opening Day winning percentage. Meanwhile, one-time All-Star Freddy Peralta (3.86 ERA in 2023), now Milwaukee's ace, will start against New York. 

Notable offseason additions?

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez: This past Thursday, the 36-year-old agreed to a one-year, $12M contract with New York, and his addition immediately elevates the ceiling of the team's lineup. Last season, Martinez slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI in 113 games for the Dodgers. Since he missed nearly all of spring training, Martinez will open the regular season in the minors to get the at-bats he needs to return to action, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman.

Right-hander Luis Severino: The two-time All-Star comes to Queens on a one-year prove-it deal after a career-worst season with the Yankees in 2023, where he had a 6.65 ERA over 89.1 innings pitched. As long as he continues to perform as he has in spring training, Severino could prove to be another successful reclamation project for Stearns. Across nine innings this spring, Severino has posted a 1.00 ERA with eight strikeouts while showcasing his high velocity and improved command. 

Biggest question entering the season? 

Can the pitching staff carry its surprising spring training results into the regular season?

Outside of a failed attempt to sign current Dodger Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Mets didn't aggressively pursue any prominent free-agent arms this offseason. As a result, Stearns made a flurry of low-risk, high-reward signings that weren't met with much excitement but improved the team's depth. 

Concerns about the pitching staff only intensified when Kodai Senga was shut down last month with a moderate posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder. Despite this, pitching has been New York's strength during spring training, as it leads the majors in team ERA (3.13) and ranks second in batting average against (.220). If Mets pitchers can carry this momentum into the season, the team could get off to a strong start.

It's worth noting that doctors recently cleared Senga to throw again, potentially paving the way for the All-Star right-hander to return in May, which would be a dream scenario for the Mets. However, New York's April schedule includes a four-game series at Atlanta and a West Coast trip against the Dodgers and Giants, so Senga's absence will still be difficult to overcome. 

Players to watch?

First baseman Pete Alonso: The Mets didn't trade or extend the "Polar Bear" this offseason, making his impending free agency a major storyline for the Mets — one that's bound to be a distraction. Re-signing a player with more homers than anyone else since debuting seems like a no-brainer, but the Mets aren't paying him based on past production, and Alonso was inconsistent in 2023. The three-time All-Star will have to prove there's little risk in giving him a massive long-term contract extension. 

Closer Edwin Diaz: The top of the ninth inning at Citi Field is sure to be more exciting this season now that the star closer and his infamous entrance song "Narco" are set to return. Diaz missed last season after sustaining a knee injury during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. If Diaz can replicate his dominant 2022 form (1.31 ERA and 32 saves), the Mets' revamped bullpen could emerge as one of the best in baseball. 

Just how improved will the Mets be? 

Although the odds are against them, the Mets should be in the mix for a wild-card spot in 2024. After all, New York's offensive core from 2022's 101-win team is still intact, and it has added some much-needed depth this offseason, something last season's roster lacked. The pitching staff remains a question mark, but Stearns' track record with pitchers provides hope for positive results.