Assessing the San Diego Padres' offseason outlook

2022 was a big success for the Padres, as they made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They then knocked off the 101-win Mets as well as the 111-win Dodgers, slaying “the dragon up the freeway.” The Phillies put a stop to the magic in the NLCS but it was still the best campaign in recent Padres history. They have a strong core together to keep the good times going in 2023, but will also have to address some gaps created when some key pieces hit free agency.

Guaranteed contracts

• Fernando Tatis Jr., IF/OF: $332.57M through 2034.
• Manny Machado, 3B: $192M through 2028. Machado can opt out after 2023.
• Joe Musgrove, SP: $100M through 2027.
• Yu Darvish, SP: $19M through 2023.
• Ha-Seong Kim, IF: $17M through 2024, including $2M buyout on mutual option for 2025.
• Blake Snell, SP: $16.6M through 2023.
• Drew Pomeranz, RP: $10M through 2023.
• Luis Garcia, RP: $3.5M through 2023.

Padres also owe Eric Hosmer, since traded to the Red Sox, the majority of the three years and $39M left on his contract. The Red Sox will pay him the league minimum with the Padres paying the rest. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but is unlikely to do so.

Total 2023 commitments: $128.11M
Total future commitments: $727.45M

Options decisions

• Wil Myers, OF: $20M club option with $1M buyout.
• Jurickson Profar, OF: $7.5M player option with $1M buyout. Contract also has mutual option for 2024.
• Nick Martinez, RP: $6.5M player option with $1M buyout. Same structure exists for 2024 and 2025.
• Robert Suarez, RP: $5M player option with $1M buyout.

Arbitration-eligible players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Josh Hader (5.115): $13.6M
• Jorge Alfaro (5.083): $3.6M
• Juan Soto (4.134): $21.5M
• Tim Hill (4.112): $1.7M
• Austin Adams (4.015): $1M
• José Castillo (3.125): $900K
• Austin Nola (3.106): $2.2M
• Trent Grisham (3.060): $2.6M
• Adrian Morejon (3.013): $800K
• Jake Cronenworth (3.000): $4.4M
• Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Adams, Castillo

Free agents

• Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, Brandon Drury, Josh Bell, Pierce Johnson, Craig Stammen

The Padres stole the show at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto in one of the most unique trades in baseball history. He still has a couple years of arbitration eligibility to go, meaning the Friars will be able to enjoy a full season of Soto’s work in 2023. In terms of the other deadline pickups, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are heading to free agency, but Josh Hader has one arb year left, allowing the Padres to hang onto him.

Soto will be locked into right field, with Trent Grisham likely next to him in center. Grisham didn’t have a great year at the plate in 2022, but he’s still valuable due to his speed and defense. Left field could be wide-open, as Jurickson Profar is lined up to opt out of the final season of his three-year deal. He’s set to make $7.5M but could take the $1M buyout and look to find more than $6.5M on the open market to come out ahead. Wil Myers also saw some time in the outfield in 2022, but the Padres are sure to give him the $1M buyout instead of picking up his $20M option.

Of course, one complicating factor that needs to be considered is the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. An injury suffered via a motorcycle crash during the lockout kept him out of action for the first half of 2022, and then a PED suspension prevented him appearing in the second half. The Padres will have to make a decision on where Tatis fits after that disappointing sequence of events. He still has 20 games remaining on his suspension but will be eligible to return to the team after that. While he was out of action, Ha-Seong Kim took over the shortstop job and had an excellent season.

Tatis has played some outfield in the past while dealing with injuries that kept him off short. He could theoretically be moved onto the grass going forward, but it seems the club is leaning toward a plan where Tatis returns to short, Kim moves over to second and Jake Cronenworth gets bumped to first. With Myers, Drury and Bell all departing, that would open up first for Cronenworth. Manny Machado is coming off an excellent season and will be a mainstay at third. If that is indeed the plan they wish to follow, adding a corner outfielder should be the main priority on the position-player side of things.

The Friars have some internal options who could step up, such as José Azocar or Brandon Dixon, but they should be looking for an upgrade here. The top of the outfield market this winter will be Aaron Judge, who is set up for a massive payday. The Padres have shown they are not afraid to make a huge strike, meaning they can’t be ruled out on getting Judge and perhaps moving Soto over to left. However, with many large contracts already in place, they might opt for more modest options like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley or Mitch Haniger. They could also be a fit for Trey Mancini, who can play first base and the outfield corners. Bringing back Drury and his positional versatility is also a logical move.

Behind the plate, the Padres have three MLB-caliber catchers in place, but they will have to make a decision about whether or not to keep all of them around next year. Jorge Alfaro didn’t get much time behind the plate toward the end of the year, only starting at catcher four times after rosters expanded at the start of September. The rest of the starts went to Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. With Alfaro striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances and not getting great marks for his defensive work, the club likely moves on and lets Campusano finally have some real playing time. He debuted in 2020 but still only has 28 MLB games on his résumé. With Alfaro projected for an arbitration salary of $3.6M, he’s likely to be non-tendered.

In the rotation, the Padres will still have a strong front three, as Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are all under contract for next year. They will have to make decisions about the backend, though, as Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are both headed into free agency. The Padres also weakened their depth by including MacKenzie Gore in the Soto trade.

There is one in-house option in Adrian Morejon, with the club evidently not giving up on him as a starter. Morejon underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 and returned to make 26 appearances in 2022, though all of those were out of the bullpen. But prior to that, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league. It’s fairly logical that the Padres would want to give him another chance to see what he can do, but it’s also unlikely they will simply hand him a guaranteed spot in the rotation after a long layoff and then a handful of bullpen outings.

There are a couple of other depth options in the system, but the Padres will likely be looking to add two starters. There will be no shortage of options, with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón all expected to trigger opt-outs and form the top of the pitching market. For teams that miss out on those guys, there are still lots of interesting hurlers on the next tier, including Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson and many more. They could also look to the trade market, perhaps trying to get Pablo López or Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. But after unloading so many prospects at the deadline, they might not want to further subtract from their system.

The bullpen also might need some upgrades, especially if Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez both decide to opt out and return to free agency. If they did, they would join Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson, potentially subtracting four arms from the relief corps. They would still have Josh Hader, which is a fine starting point and means they probably won’t go for Edwin Diaz. But they could look for quality setup options, such as bringing back Suarez or going after Michael Fulmer, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Brad Hand. Martinez would reportedly prefer to be a starter, so perhaps they could convince him to stick around, if they think he can handle a rotation spot. Suarez, however, is a virtual lock to test free agency and land a multiyear deal.

Of course, how aggressive they go after filling these vacancies will depend upon the payroll situation. Historically, the Padres were not huge spenders, but they have shifted that reputation in recent years, even nudging into luxury-tax territory in each of the past two seasons. Roster Resource estimates their actual 2023 payroll to currently be around $187M though the CBT number is much higher at $21M. The disparity comes from the fact that CBT calculations are based on the average annual values of contracts, not just the salary earned by the players in 2023, and also factor in player benefits.

It’s unknown at this point how much the club is willing to spend, but it’s possible they could take the same approach as they did in 2022, hovering near the tax line but willing to go over it at the deadline if the right opportunity comes along. The lowest CBT threshold is jumping from $230M up to $233M for 2023, but that wouldn’t leave the Padres a lot of room to work with. A few non-tenders would create some more breathing room, but probably only about $5M or so.

The Padres have plenty of talent but could use a left fielder, two starting pitchers, some relievers and maybe a first baseman as well. If they have only about $20M to play with, it will be difficult to accomplish all of that. But the Padres have shown in recent years that they might have more money in the bank than you’d expect. Perhaps this offseason will prove that yet again.