Astros finalize starting rotation

Right-hander Ronel Blanco will start the 2024 season in the Astros’ rotation, manager Joe Espada announced to the team’s beat writers on Tuesday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Blanco got the news after celebrating the birth of his daughter and going on to fan 10 hitters in his final start of spring training — not a bad way to close out camp.

The final couple of spots in Houston’s rotation have been up in the air throughout spring training due to injuries up and down the staff. The ’Stros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery) would start the year on the shelf. But since camp began, they’ve seen Justin Verlander slowed by shoulder discomfort, Jose Urquidy sustain a forearm strain and righty Shawn Dubin stalled by shoulder troubles. That trio will join McCullers and Garcia on the injured list to begin the season. Right-hander J.P. France has also battled through shoulder problems, but he’s recovered to the point where he’ll now join Blanco in the rotation to begin the year.

Blanco, 30, didn’t even make his major league debut until his age-28 season in 2022 and only tossed 6 1/3 frames that year. He logged 52 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with the Astros in 2023, starting seven games and making another 10 relief appearances. Command woes (12.4% walk rate) and extreme susceptibility to home runs (2.08 HR/9) worked against Blanco in 2023, but neither has been an issue through his small sample of spring innings. Blanco was unscored upon in 15 2/3 frames during Cactus League play, striking out 32.7% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate.

It’s a small sample that’s come against opposition that hasn’t entirely consisted of MLB hitters, but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend. Blanco walked 12.6% of his opponents even in Triple-A last season, so any strides in that department are most welcome. He must demonstrate that his improved command is sustainable over a larger sample against more advanced competition. Still, there’s little denying he’s earned this opportunity — outperforming alternative rotation options like swingman Brandon Bielak or non-roster prospect Spencer Arrighetti.

The Astros don’t seem to be anticipating a lengthy absence for Verlander. If he indeed can return before long, that’ll create an interesting decision on whether Blanco or France retains his rotation spot. France had the stronger overall showing in 2023, emerging as an unexpectedly vital contributor who tossed 136 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. But France also wilted substantially after a hot start to the season; from Aug. 1 through the season’s end, he was torched for a 5.84 ERA in 44 2/3 innings. Much of that damage came in a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, but France was increasingly prone to walks and hard contact in the season’s final two months, even when setting aside that outlier shellacking against Boston.

The Astros will send lefty Framber Valdez to the mound for Thursday’s Opening Day start. For now, he’ll be followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Blanco and France. Time will tell when or whether the Astros need to decide on the back end of the staff. Additional injuries could further cement Blanco and/or France among the group. Both France and Blanco will likely make their fair share of starts in 2024. Both have minor league options remaining — two for France, one for Blanco — and injuries/spot starts will necessitate utilizing far more than just five or even six starters. But at least early in the season, Blanco will get the chance to make a strong impression and show that he deserves a long-term spot in a Houston rotation that injuries have continually dogged over the past couple of years. Blanco has less than one year of big-league service and can be controlled all the way through the 2029 season.