Diamondbacks 2023 Player Reviews: Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas entered the 2023 season coming  off  a tough 2022 rookie campaign. In his rookie year, after starting hot, MLB pitching adjusted to him and he failed to counter adjust. After an off-season of working on his issues at the plate, April in the 2023 regular season seemed to be going the same way as his 2022 season. Thomas continued to roll over on pitches due to issues with his stance and holes in his swing. Despite his All-Star caliber defense, Thomas hit just .193/.269/.337/.606 with 16 hits in 27 games. He continued to exhibit his power potential with four doubles, a triple, and two home runs to go with eight RBI. Plus, Thomas was seeing the ball well with eight walks to his 21 strikeouts, but he wasn't making enough quality contact.

This continued into May where he barely improved over 12 games with a .200 batting average and .500 OPS. This led the D-backs to option Thomas to Triple-A where he could work on his stance and swing in a less-pressured environment with the Reno Aces. It seemed to work wonders as over his 26 games, Thomas hit .348/.409/.518/.927 with 39 hits, 11 extra-base hits, and 31 RBI. Plus, he walked 12 times to only 20 strikeouts. He was performing excellently.

This led the Diamondbacks to recall Thomas on June 19th to return as the potential everyday centerfielder. Over 11 games to the end of June, the results from his brief stay in Reno seemed to help him quite a bit. He hit .300 with a .792 OPS and five extra-base hits in 12 hits. Granted, this was a small sample size but quite a positive one.

Over the next two months, Thomas played nearly every day in centerfield regardless of his immense struggles against left-handed pitching. This was mostly due to his great defense but also the  improvement in his bat. Through August 30th and over 48 games, Thomas hit .269/.309/.439/.748 with 35 hits. The team tried their best to shield him against left-handed pitching by utilizing him as a late-inning defensive sub or pinch-hitter, but the bottom results were quite good. This was especially true when compared to his stats in 2022 or to the start of 2023. 

Over this time, he had six doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 12 RBI. However, there was cause for concern as he walked only six times to an eye-popping 30 strikeouts. He was striking out at a rate of 21.4% of his plate appearances over this time. Still, thanks to his speed and improved swing, Thomas was reaching base enough. From June 19th to August 30th, Thomas was hitting at 101 wRC+ where 100 is the league average. Comparing that to his 73 wRC+ for 2022, it's a stark improvement. While it was just "around league average", you combine that with Thomas' speed and defense and he's a potential All-Star player.

Unfortunately for Thomas, his swing issues reared their ugly head in September as he began to struggle again at the plate. Over his final 27 games of the season, Thomas hit only .187/.227/.297/.524 with a 4/19 walk-strikeout ratio. Still, there was hope that Thomas could get back to the power swing that he displayed for two-plus months when the playoffs started. It turned out that those hopes would be well-founded.

While he was working on his swing, Thomas continued to be a star defender. Thomas had 0.8 defensive WAR. He recorded five defensive runs saved and a sparkling 3.1 UZR. He was worth five outs above average. It was no surprise to see Thomas be nominated for a Gold Glove in centerfield for his play in 2023. Thomas will possibly win one eventually. Rawling's Gloves who are the ones who award the Gold Gloves awarded Thomas  "Play of the Year" for his game-saving catch against the Texas Rangers in the 9th inning on August 23rd, 2023.

While Thomas hit for a low average in the NL Wild Card and Divisional Series, his power was on full display. Over those five games, Thomas had two home runs and four hits. Then, in the NLCS, Thomas took it to the next level putting up the team's second-highest OPS. He scored four runs and hit two more home runs including the memorable Game Four home run that put the D-backs over the Phillies for good late in the game with runners on base. He made a lot of contact with only two strikeouts.

In the World Series, Thomas continued to be a lethal weapon at the plate for the Diamondbacks, however, the power dissipated. Thomas had two multi-hit games but only had one double. Still, Thomas did his job by getting on base five times in five games.

Diving Deeper into the Statistics

There are still issues with Alek Thomas, but his 2023 season was a strong one. While his 71 wRC+ at the end of the season leaves a lot to be desired, one can have hope that Alek is closer to his 101 performance over the middle of the season. His OPS+ of 75 remained the same from 2022, but there is some confidence that Thomas can close some holes in his swing and his foot movement at the plate in 2024 in his age-24 season.

However, Thomas will have to improve upon facing left-handed pitching. There's nothing else he could do more to help his bat than improve that. Thomas isn't playable against pitchers of the same side. He hit just .143/.175/.260/.435 in 81 plate appearances. He combined for only four extra-base hits, including two home runs and only nine of his RBI. Compare that to his numbers against right-handed pitching and it's night and day. 

When he has the platoon advantage, Thomas is hitting .253/.297/.404/.701 with 16 doubles, four triples, seven home runs, and 30 RBI. Plus, for some odd reason, he stole nine bases compared to zero against lefties. His numbers with the advantage equate to an everyday regular centerfielder. This is especially true with his defense. So, if the Diamondbacks want to see improvement in their outfield and keep Corbin Carroll in right field, Thomas must improve his hitting against left-handed pitching. This is true too for his future potential.

Another interesting split for Thomas from the 2023 season is that he did far better at home than on the road. Thomas loved Chase Field as he hit .257/.302/.446/.747 with 18 extra-base hits. When on the road, he struck out 47 times in 65 games and hit just .206/.246/.312/.558. It would appear that Thomas is a different hitter in high-leverage or pressure-packed moments. He was a completely different batter in these situations as evidenced by his play in the playoffs. In high-leverage situations, Thomas hit .277 with a .431 slug and .721 OPS. He had 18 hits in 71 plate appearances and five extra-base hits to go with 17 RBI. He's a clutch hitter when all is said and done.

One last intriguing statistic occurs when Thomas is patient in his at-bats. When Thomas swung at the first pitch, he hit just .206 with a .522 OPS. When he stayed patient and didn't swing, Thomas hit .240 with a .696 OPS. On the whole,  Thomas has a lot to grow and improve, but he's already a talented outfielder capable of changing the entire game with just his bat or glove at any moment's time. It's a great foundation for him and the Diamondbacks to build upon.

2024 Status and Outlook

 Thomas is scheduled to be the Arizona Diamondbacks Opening Day centerfielder. Depending on how Spring Training goes, he's going to get at-bats in every game against right-handed pitching. On days when a left-handed pitcher starts, he will likely sit and come off the bench late in the game for defense or as a pinch hitter. If he can improve against left-handers, it will be tough to sit him at all. The ball is in his court as to how much he plays in 2024. However, come August and September, expect him in the field as much as possible as the Diamondbacks hunt down a playoff spot. The fan-favorite player only has a little more than a year of service time. His contract will likely be renewed for the 2024 season. He won't reach arbitration until after 2025 and isn't going to reach free agency until after the 2028 season. It's safe to say that you can expect to see a lot of Alek Thomas in a D-backs jersey for the foreseeable future.