Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Alek Thomas

Thomas' projection for 2024 immediately jumps of the page as a stark improvement. While still showing somewhat modest numbers, the fact is that his offensively productive streaks have been relatively few. However, both steamer and ZiPS expect a much more consistent season for Thomas in 2024.

Thomas has struggled making consistent contact with power throughout his short major league career. His projection expects a rise in ISO (isolated power), and a solid increase in batting average, on-base percentage and slug, and his OPS is expected to rise drastically, projecting an increase to around league average. 

He's expected to have better plate discipline than 2023, with a notable increase in walk percentage and strikeouts. With an already solid baseline of defensive ability, and no sign that he will falter in the field, Thomas is expected to add a full win to his previous season's aWAR, while hitting and reaching base more consistently, slugging near league average and appearing in more games.

This projection--although incorporating some of Thomas' more solid minor league numbers--expect a significant surge in production and consistency for the young outfielder.

Why Thomas might outperform this projection

As with many of the young Diamondbacks, Thomas had a notable postseason. Although only hitting .220 over the month of October, he did hit four home runs, and his .480 slug brought his ISO (which is calculated as slugging minus batting average) to .260. Prior to the World Series, he was hitting .212 and slugging .576 (a .364 ISO), including a home run to jump start game two of the Wild Card, a home run to add to the blowout win over the Dodgers in game one of the NLDS, the clutch two-run homer against Philly, and a solo shot the very next game.

Thomas' issues are from consistency. Hitting for power was surprisingly not his biggest flaw, and he slashed .300/.317/.475 in his first month back from Triple-A. His speed ranks in the 87th percentile, and his base running was in the 98th, with a four run value added. 

Thomas is a defensive stud, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Outs Above Average with seven. Every D-backs fan who watched Thomas this season knows how frequently his speed and acrobatic defensive plays bailed out Arizona's pitchers and kept opponents scoreless in crucial moments.

Thomas has the makeup of an exceptional player. Defensively, on the bases and as a humble, coachable person. His ability to work on his swing and come back looking much better at the plate mid-season was very encouraging, and his ability to slug is there, if simply dormant at times. 

A full off-season of swing adjustments and consistency in his development could easily see Thomas become an offensive weapon in addition to his stellar defense.

Why Thomas might underperform this projection

Thomas fell victim to too many non-competitive at bats in 2023. His first two months were dismal, batting just barely .200 and slugging well under .400. After the small surge in his slash following his stint in Reno, Thomas' "leg-kick" swing returned, and he began to roll over balls frequently again.

Although having some critical postseason moments, Thomas generally looked like his old self at the plate in the final months of the regular season, and he started to regress back to his pre-recall days.

He had an exceptional tendency to put the ball on the ground, and while that can work with speedy players, a 56.9% ground ball rate is not an auspicious statistic for a hitter, ranking well below average. 

Thomas also struggled mightily with left-handed pitching. A left-handed batter, Thomas hit .253 against right-handed pitchers, but hit an abysmal .143 against southpaws. Thomas' stark contrast in splits make him mostly dead weight at the plate against left-handed pitchers, and if that number doesn't improve, there is little chance he becomes an everyday starter, defense notwithstanding.

His underlying hitting metrics all rank at or below average according to Savant, and while he doesn't show an exceptionally terrible strikeout rate, his barrel rate and sweet-spot rate sit in the bottom 20% of MLB, and he has a tendency to chase outside the zone (20th percentile chase rate). 

Thomas' surge in slug and ISO are also the beneficiaries of exceptional speed, whereas his pure power-hitting might not be enough for average speed players to collect extra-base hits, and he only left the yard 13 times, regular and postseason combined.

While there is plenty of time for the young outfielder to work on his swing, a projection that expects numbers to be as high as they are, relative to his previous two seasons will be hard to live up to without fundamental changes to his approach. If there is improvement, it could be slow and still fall shy of these expected numbers.

Summary

Thomas is a staple of Arizona's defense, and has shown the ability to slug in crucial moments. Both projection systems expect a sharp increase in his production and consistency at the plate for 2024. While Thomas is certainly a candidate for a breakout season, along with the return of excellent center field play, he will have his work cut out for him at the plate to reach a projection that expects significant offensive improvement.