Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Geraldo Perdomo

Perdomo's numbers see a slight dip at first glance. Overall, the projections from both Steamer and ZiPS are quite modest, and don't see the young infielder improving upon his lack of ability to slug. Perdomo is expected to decline slightly in batting average, on-base percentage and slug, but still maintain a solid plate discipline profile. 

Since he walked at a very solid rate in 2023, and struck out very infrequently, both numbers will expect a slight return to the mean, but still expect him to put forward solid numbers in those categories. As with every one of his previous major league years, he's expected to reach base close to or more than 100 points higher than his less-than-spectacular batting average.

What's concerning is a lack of increase in slug or ISO, but since these projections account for the averages of previous years--years in which Perdomo's ratio of power to hitting was abysmal--they won't be greatly swayed by the improvement he showed in the power department in 2023.

With such a drastic improvement across the board from 2022 to 2023, it's not a surprise that his 2023 projections won't allow for another jump in stats.

Why Perdomo might outperform this projection

Perdomo's jump from his first full major league season to his second was significant. A .246/.353/.359/.712 2023 slash isn't outstanding, but was all an incredible jump from the well-below average numbers he put up in 2022.

Perdomo doubled his extra-base hits in 2023 from 12 to 24, and although he only hit six home runs on the season, his power was a notable improvement, along with every other category.

Perdomo ranked in the top 10% of MLB in chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate, and struck out in the 79th percentile of batters. He was a good baserunner, and ranked in the 86th percentile defensively, with four Outs Above Average and a stellar 996.3 average fielding rate at a variety of infield positions, committing just four errors on the season.

Perdomo, by all logical means, is in prime position to continue his upward trajectory. He slashed a solid .298/.389/.426/.815 with two home runs in the 2023 postseason, including the home run that began Arizona's historic four-homer inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He held it down as the everyday shortstop defensively, making crucial plays in the Wild Card and World Series.

Despite the issues with his power, Perdomo appears to be improving as a contact hitter, and hit an extremely impressive .313 with runners in scoring position. Perdomo has what it takes to outperform his batting average and aWAR projections, and while he doesn't have the most powerful frame, the 23-year old has plenty of time to improve his swing and hit the ball harder.

Why Perdomo might underperform his projection

After hitting .390 and slugging .627 in his first month, Perdomo struggled to find a rhythm in the D-backs offense. He jumped around in the batting order due to his struggles, and while his plate discipline was certainly impressive, that lent itself to a tendency to watch strike three sail down the center of the zone without pulling the trigger.

Perdomo has never impressed in the power department, and even the balls he hit that seemed like rockets would often die on the warning track. The young switch hitter was among MLB's worst when it came to barrel rate, hard-hit rate and xSLG. 

His average exit velocity was 85.7, the 3rd percentile of MLB. Putting the bat on the ball wasn't the biggest issue for Perdomo, but he was relatively ineffective as a hitter when he did do so.

His greatest strengths come from his ability to work counts and walk, and while that is certainly impressive, he could be in line for a regression, especially considering his .201 xBA in 2023 was 45 points lower than his actual batting average. 

Such a sharp increase in some of his numbers make it hard for him to improve upon himself again In 2024, and we could see him regress towards the mean and edge closer to his 2022 numbers. With such a solid year defensively, his aWAR could also take a hit if he fails to be as nearly-perfect as he was last year.

It's quite possible, without 2023's anomalous opening month, Perdomo's overall numbers will suffer in 2024.

Summary

Perdomo is a young player with plenty of upside, and his ability to improve drastically from year to year is encouraging. He might see some reduced action with the addition of shortstop Kevin Newman, Eugenio Suárez to anchor the third base slot and Jordan Lawlar working his way up to starting status, but he has proven himself to be able to hit well and play solid defense. His power metrics are concerning, but with a full off-season to develop there is plenty of room for him to grow as a player.