How does Twins' pitching staff look after DeSclafani-for-Polanco trade?

The Twins finally made their first big move of the offseason, sending second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for four players and cash Monday night.

The trade accomplished the goals that Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey had for any deal involving Polanco: build for 2024 while keeping an eye on the future. Right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani and right-handed reliever Justin Topa will make an impact immediately, and the Twins also bolstered their prospect pool with outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, the No. 79-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline, and right-handed Low-A pitcher Darren Bowen.

It wasn’t the blockbuster that last season’s trade for ace Pablo Lopez was, perhaps to some Twins fans disappointment, however, it does shore up the rotation and bolster the bullpen. Falvey also indicated that the Twins aren't done making moves — they received $8 million in the Mariners trade to work with — however, it seems the Twins’ focus will now turn to position players; he mentioned the possibility of adding to the team’s outfield depth, and first base remains a bit of a question mark with Alex Kirilloff’s status uncertain following shoulder surgery.

So while the Twins are likely to make another move, it appears that they’re satisfied with their pitching staff, so here’s a look at their starting rotation and bullpen with Twins pitchers and catchers set to report to Fort Myers, Fla., on Feb. 14.

Starting rotation

Before Monday’s trade, the Twins had four spots in the rotation fairly solidified. DeSclafani seems likely to take the fifth spot in the rotation, but North St. Paul’s Louie Varland could also compete for that spot.

Lopez is the clear ace on the roster, Joe Ryan is clearly the Twins’ No. 2, while Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack seem destined for the third and fourth spots in the rotation, although not necessarily in that order. 

The fifth spot is likely a competition between Varland and DeSclafani.

When the Mariners traded for DeSclafani in early January from San Francisco, they intended to use him in a long reliever role. Varland, while he prefers to be a starter, made relief appearances toward the end of last season and throughout the playoffs.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has preferred to keep a long reliever on the roster, although the Twins didn’t use one much during the 2023 season. It doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to think that Minnesota has DeSclafani and Varland compete for the final spot in the rotation, with the other relegated to a long reliever role.

With the injury histories for Paddack and DeSclafani, the Twins could use another arm, not just to improve the rotation, but to give them additional options should they deal with more injuries in 2024. But it appears, at least for now, that they’re happy with their rotation heading into the new season.

Bullpen

The Twins will return most of the core of their bullpen from last season, including closer Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar.

While they did lose Emilio Pagan to free agency, they signed right-hander Josh Staumont in free agency along with acquiring Topa on Monday.

Duran won’t be going anywhere as the closer, and Jax, Stewart — who was a revelation in 2023, posting a 0.65 earned-run average with 39 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings — and Thielbar will likely remain the Twins’ top high-leverage arms.

Topa is a medium- to high-leverage reliever and can fill the void left by Pagan. He went 5-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 69 innings last season. 

Staumont, meanwhile, is a bit of a question mark coming off surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. He had his best season in 2021 when he made 64 appearances, tossing 65 2/3 innings and striking out 72 batters while posting a 2.88 ERA. 

Last season, he pitched 20 innings for the Kansas City Royals, striking out 24 batters while posting a 5.40 ERA.

Depending on how the fifth spot in the rotation shakes out, Varland could be a strong bullpen option, particularly as a long reliever. In his 12 innings as a reliever at the end of last season, Varland allowed just two runs, both solo homers, and struck out 17 while walking just one. He could also start the season in Triple-A. 

Kody Funderburk also seems likely to take a bullpen spot after impressing in limited action down the stretch last season. He made 11 appearances, posting a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings while striking out 19. Funderburk recorded a 2-0 record.

Jorge Alcalá is another option for the Twins out of the bullpen.

All in all, the bullpen figures to be a strength for the Twins. It’s currently projected for the third best wins above replacement in Major League Baseball, per FanGraphs, which also projects the team’s overall WAR to be 43.0 in 2024, 11th best in baseball.