It's now or never on a contract extension for Max Fried

The Atlanta Braves have done a good job at ensuring long-term control of their major league roster, with almost every single defensive position locked up for multiple seasons in the future. 

The pitching staff is another story, with only Spencer Strider having signed a long-term contract extension with the Braves. 

Is Max Fried the next to put pen to paper? 

The ace lefty, who just turned 30 on January 18th, has one year of team control remaining before free agency. He's set to make $15M this season after reaching an agreement at the arbitration deadline with Atlanta. 

Per reports from Fan Fest last weekend, Fried's focused on the upcoming season rather than his contract, letting his agent handle things behind closed doors. 

I feel like a lot of that is, I would say it’s out of my control right now. But the Braves do things a certain way, and I know that privacy and having that just kind of be more behind closed doors is the way things are done, so I’m gonna respect that. But I know that I love being here, and I’m really excited to get started with this group….We didn’t accomplish what we wanted to last year, but I know that we have a really determined group, and I’m really excited to get started.

Fried is represented by CAA, and Atlanta tried (and failed) to reach an agreement with the lefthander prior to the 2023 season. 

But there's one more chance to get a contract extension before the lefty his free agency - right now, before the season starts. 

An extension still isn't likely for Fried 

It's worth discussing why an extension probably isn't going to happen, and those reasons haven't changed - risk. Fried's taken on the risk by being on a series on one year deals for the last five years, first at the league minimum salaries and then through arbitration from 2021-2023, where Fried has both won and lost his hearings against the Braves. 

Usually whenever a player signed a contract extension prior to reaching free agency, it's to insure themselves against the risk of catastrophic injury. As MLB contracts are guaranteed (and often insured, in the case of career-ending injury), once you've signed, the stress of an injury damaging your future earnings is essentially taken away. 

But Fried's carried that risk himself in his major league career, and it's not like things have been incredibly smooth sailing. Despite not being "injury prone", per se, with only one significant injury in his major league career, Fried has gone on the injured list nine different times at the major league level. The second injured list stint last season, for a forearm strain, could have potentially been catastrophic if it ended up being an elbow injury that would require a second Tommy John surgery or an internal brace repair; Fried's already had TJ surgery, as as prospect in 2014. 

But if an extension is going to happen, now is the time

Spring training's a different environment - it's more laid back, with lower stakes and less pressure to perform. The players come in early and leave early, with games starting around lunch and ending in the early afternoon. Family members, fans, and team personnel all roam the facilities and backfields, and chance encounters can happen.  

And many players entering their walk year take advantage of the relaxed environment to meet with the general manager and get their deals done before the season, so it's not a distraction. 

And those injuries in 2023 leaves an opening for Atlanta to get a deal done before the season starts. 

The price tag for Fried on a potential extension, while not having come down, hasn't yet risen to where it will go if Fried puts up a typical Max Fried year - 28 to 30 starts, 165 to 185 innings, with double digit wins and an ERA between 2.50 and 3.00. 

It'll require going past the (real or perceived) $22M/year limit on the roster, but Atlanta's indicated that that's not a hard limit - Josh Donaldson got $23M on a one year deal for the 2019 season, and the Braves reportedly offered $27M per year to Aaron Nola before he returned to Philadelphia on a seven year deal worth $172M, an AAV of $24.6M this offseason. 

But as Chipper Jones told Freddie Freeman prior to the first baseman's free agency after the 2021 season, heading to free agency lowers the odds that you'll eventually be back, because things are different when the Braves have to compete with the rest of the market...and have alternatives to overpaying for your services.  

"You’re playing a very dangerous game. You go out on the free agent market, you get courted by all the pretty girls that are on the block, chances are, you’re not gonna come back. If you take your time waiting on that six-year (deal) into January, (Atlanta) has a job to do," recalled Jones about having a discussion with Freeman when he was offered a five-year, $135 million deal by the Braves.

Odds are there's a team that will outbid Atlanta for the services of Fried, not just based on some of the pitching contracts that have been handed out this offseason but also because Anthopoulos hasn't shown an inclination to sign pitchers over the age of 30 to long-term deals. 

But if you make Fried a "meet in the middle" offer now - say, $25M annually for five or six years - and Fried decides to give up a bit of additional money to stay in Atlanta, a deal could potentially come together between now and Opening Day.  

By all reports, Fried loves Atlanta and living here, even spending most of his offseason working out in town (and going to Hawks games) rather than decamping for his native California. 

But do both sides want to make the sacrifices needed to reach a deal? We'll have to wait and see. 

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