MLB best prop bets: Saves leader a total toss-up

Of all the MLB prop bets available before the start of the regular season, the MLB saves leader is arguably one of the most difficult to get right. Why? Because so much has to go right in order for your pick to hit. 

Ideally, your pick is a guy on a team that is expected to finish at least .500 or better, and hopefully plays in a lot of games that aren't too lopsided. It's hard to get a lot of saves if your team plays in a lot of blowouts and it's even harder if you're on a team that isn't winning. 

The most conventional save is the three-out save and has the pitcher entering the game in the ninth inning in which his team is winning by three or fewer runs and finishing the game in that same inning without losing the lead. However, you can get a save even if you record just one out and you can get a save by recording more than three outs too. 

Edwin Diaz is the favorite and we're kind of surprised. The New York Mets closer has led the league in saves just one time in his seven-year career and has recorded 40 or more saves in a season just once. There's no denying he's one of the best closers in the game and is on the perfect team to rack up a ton of saves, but his track record has us a bit concerned. 

Diaz became the highest paid reliever in baseball history after signing a five-year, $102 million contract, and if he struggles, New York fans are never going to let him hear the end of it. We're not implying that Diaz is going to have a disappointing season after hitting the bank, but with a line of 8/1, putting money on Diaz really isn't worth it. 

Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase follows Diaz as the next favorite to lead MLB in saves at 9/1, and to be honest, we think he should be ahead of Diaz. Clase led the majors in saves last year, and he was a workhorse. The second-year pro also led MLB in appearances and games finished, and we wouldn't be surprised if the same happens this year. 

Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays follows Clase with a line of 10/1, and this one really has us scratching our head. No doubt Romano is a top five reliever in baseball, but his track record isn't all that impressive. The right-hander racked up a career-high 36 saves last year and should get plenty of opportunities again this year on a talented Toronto team. However, considering Romano has made 60+ appearances in back-to-back years and has yet to record 40 or more saves, we're not confident this is all of the sudden the year he leads the majors in saves.

The Favorites: 
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets (+800)
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians (+900)
Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays (+1000)

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians (+900)

We already mentioned his name earlier, but mentioning Clase is completely necessary. Clase was lights out for the Guardians last year, and at only 25, his best baseball is still ahead. His cutter is arguably the best in the game and manager Terry Francona loves to use Clase with the game on the line. 

That's the good news, however, Clase pitched a ton last year, and on a team with a lot of good relievers — James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, etc. — Francona might be prone to give Clase a breather every now and then and let a couple of his other elite relievers close out games in order to preserve Clase's arm. 

The best thing about Clase is that unlike most relievers, control isn't an issue. Clase walked just 10 batters last year and struck out 77 hitters in 72.2 innings pitched. That's darn impressive. And it's not like he got hit hard. Clase allowed just 43 hits, and only three left the ballpark.

Cleveland played in a lot of close games last year, and they'll need to do the same again this year in order for Clase to have a shot of repeating as MLB's save leader in 2023. More importantly, Cleveland will need to have the lead entering the ninth inning just as much as they did last year and have Clase shut the door as frequently as he did last season.