Projecting the Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects in 2025

With the Top 30 prospect list and the scouting reports for all 30 players now out, we take a snapshot of what the list could look like a year from now. For this exercise, we'll take only players who are currently in the system. With three picks in the top 35 and four on the first night overall, we could likely see anywhere from two to four new names that are different from this list. 

1. INF Tommy Troy

Troy is a potential five-tool shortstop with high makeup who already has shown the ability to hit major-league velocity. He projects as a top-of-the-order hitter due to that hit tool and the variety of offensive weapons at his disposal. He has the upside of a 20 home run/20 stolen base shortstop, but is likely to settle in as a third baseman long-term should Jordan Lawlar establish himself as the team's starting shortstop next season. I would not be surprised if he winds up being a Top 25 prospect at the time of his debut, which will be at some point in the 2025 season. A strong 2024 season could result in that debut being as early as Opening Day of the next season.

2. OF Druw Jones

Perhaps the best defensive player in the organization right now, which is saying something with two Gold Glove winners on last season's team, Jones has a five-tool upside in center field. He missed out on a critical development year, limited to just 131 plate appearances with Visalia due to injuries. At the same time, if you look at the organization as a whole, Jones is probably the only other player besides Corbin Carroll who could be a legitimate MVP candidate should he reach his ceiling. For Arizona to have any sort of sustained success in the Carroll era, hitting on Jones' sky-high ceiling is a must. 

3. INF Gino Groover

Groover has a high floor due to his bat, although his long-term defensive position is still a question mark. If his defense makes strides at third base, to the point where he can stick at the position, he's the clear-cut No. 3 prospect in the organization. His bat is still enough to play at first base or even as a designated hitter, although how much home run power in that bat will determine his ceiling. Groover could be a bat that goes anywhere from 20 home runs and 40 doubles to 30 and 30 respectively. He projects to be a middle-of-the-order bat, ideally either in the fourth or fifth spot in the D-backs lineup.

4. RHP Dylan Ray

Ray is the D-backs' safest long-term projection for the starting rotation due to his full arsenal of pitches and sturdy 6'3" frame, although he'll be tested in the tough environments of Amarillo and Reno come 2024. If he can survive those environments and continue to improve, he has a shot for a possible late-season call-up in 2025. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and three average or better secondary pitches, Ray projects as a No. 3/4 starter in the D-backs rotation.

5. LHP Yu-Min Lin

Of the 10 players on this list, Lin has the best chance of being on the 2025 Opening Day roster. He has already shown an ability to handle Amarillo fairly well in 11 starts to close out the 2023 season. At a slender 5'11" build, there isn't much projection left on a fastball that sits around 90 MPH but has an advanced feel for above-average secondary stuff. With that profile, he's more of a No. 5 starter or swingman who should never see a lineup more than two times through in any capacity.

6. INF Ruben Santana

Santana has all the requisite tools to be an everyday third baseman, but the development of his bat will be what puts it all together. The D-backs will have some solid options to choose from at the position while they wait for that, with Tommy Troy and Gino Groover likely to get opportunities to hold the position. Santana has solid range and a plus arm to go with burgeoning power from his right-handed bat, so his ability to consistently impact the baseball will be the judge of how quickly he ascends the system. Like Luis, he will likely have his first full-season look in 2024 with Visalia.

7. INF Jansel Luis

Luis is another five-tool player and the highest-ranked of three prospects from their 2022 international class due to a five-tool upside. He has a higher chance to stick as a middle infielder due to a more well-rounded skill set than Cristofer Torin, although equally as likely to move off the position due to Lawlar and Troy being ahead of him. Luis will get his first taste of playing a full minor league season's worth of games in 2024 after quality showings in the DSL in 2022 and the Complex League in 2023.

8. OF Jack Hurley

Hurley is another potential five-tool player in the outfield, although he'll need to improve his strikeout rate from 28% in High-A to make use of them long-term. His swing is very noisy, starting with a big leg kick and an aggressive approach at the plate. With a likely low walk rate in his profile, Hurley will need to be able to reduce his strikeout rate to below the major league average of 22% and/or add more in-game power to bump Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy off the roster in 2026. Hurley projects to be more of a fourth outfielder who could handle any of the three positions defensively. 

9. INF Ivan Melendez

Melendez is the type of prospect who could very easily make or break the sustained success the D-backs are looking to build. Of all the prospects in the system, he's still the safest bet to produce 30+ home runs in the lineup although it's very likely he develops into a low average, low OBP slugger due to an astronomical strikeout rate. While he was able to reduce his strikeout rate from 34% in the regular season to 28% in the Arizona Fall League, the latter was not known for its great pitching. With the D-backs being a mid-market team and long-term uncertainty at both corner infield spots, it's better that they gamble on Melendez making the adjustments necessary for his bat to improve and that he'll make enough contact to stick in a major league lineup. 

10. LHP Caden Grice

After getting selected on the first night of last season's draft, Grice should be on the mound for the first time in 2024. Armed with a low 90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup, Grice has the upside of a No. 3/4 starter should his control improve. There is a bit more volatility in his profile, hence the lower ranking compared to Ray and Lin. With the organization putting pitching as the priority for his development, it will be interesting to see what type of strides he makes in that facet of his game. A good season in 2024 could easily make him one of the top pitching prospects in the organization entering 2025.