Thoughts on the Blue Jays trade of Teoscar Hernandez

The logic behind the Blue Jays trading Hernandez to Seattle may make sense in the long term, but it creates questions in the short

A bit of time has passed since the news broke and the initial shock has somewhat worn off. I wanted to share my thoughts regarding the trade of Teoscar Hernandez to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Erik Swanson and LH pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Looking at the needs of the team this off season, it was generally agreed upon that an upgrade to the bullpen would help them move forward. The Jays received a pitcher in Swanson who had an excellent season in 2022 as one look at his Statcast page will tell you. That’s one red wave I can get behind. On the other hand, those more familiar with his season say he didn’t do as well in higher leverage situations, so that is a concern.

But here is the thing – there were other ways to upgrade the bullpen without it costing the Blue Jays their all star, 2 x silver slugger outfielder, a 5 1/2 year Jay who was very popular with teammates and fans alike. There are free agents available. There are other pitchers who might reasonably be available in a trade, one that might not have come at such a high price. I have previously mentioned Joe Jiminez, who is currently on an expiring contract with the Detroit Tigers. There are even internal options. Nate Pearson, for example, just completed an assignment in the Dominican Winter League where he surrendered a mere ONE run (unearned) with double digits in strikeouts per nine innings.

In trading away Hernandez, they subtracted from their core. His offence will be hard to replace.

One tool that is often discussed is BTV (baseball trade values). Many modern day fans who are well versed in analytics point to BTV in evaluating whether a trade was a good one or not. Per BTV, the Mariners overpaid for Hernandez. No doubt a lot of this assessment is due to 3 years of team control for Swanson and 6 for prospect Macko (for whom the MLB service time clock has not yet begun), against a mere one year before Hernandez is free agent eligible.

Of course I care about the Jays’ future beyond 2023. I’m hopeful that both pitchers can help the Jays continue being competitive for years to come. But right now, my main focus in terms of the team IS the 2023 season. With the talent they have on this team, this is a year they should be trying to win the championship and right here, right now, this trade makes the Jays worse.

Many people have made the comment that it’s far too early to evaluate the trade just on its own. It is only November, after all, and the Jays have no intention being done making moves. Surely there is more to come and once they are done, then look at the whole picture and form opinions then. I certainly hope the Jays make more moves (to ADD, not subtract), but right now nothing is official. Until one or more positive move gets made, it is only hypothetical.

I’m hoping that by opening day 2023, the team will be better than they were in 2022, both on paper and in practice. Maybe they will be a division winning team, one that makes a deep playoff run. However, it is my strong opinion that even if that happens, it will have happened IN SPITE of trading away Hernandez, NOT BECAUSE they did.

I know that he is protected to earn $14 million in 2023 in arbitration. I know that trading him saves the Jays that money, which they can then put toward other areas of need. I know that MLB has a CBT and penalties for teams that exceed it, but the Jays can afford to do so. Five teams did in 2022 and all of them were playoff teams. Did Rogers Communications, who owns the team, think they could stay under it forever and still deliver on the promise of multiple championship teams under Mark Shapiro’s team presidency?

2023 is the season they could have, SHOULD HAVE, gone all in to win. Do whatever it takes to bring the World Series championship back to Toronto for the first time in 30 years. After 2023, they have several players currently free agent eligible and like it or not, they will likely need significant re-tooling in order to continue moving forward.

All Jays fans will be watching the team closely to see what other moves they make in the hope that they improve the team prior to opening day. It is still possible that the 2023 Blue Jays could win the World Series, with a few key POSITIVE moves. It is just very regrettable that the team will not include Teoscar Hernandez.