Tigers signing former AL Cy Young runner-up

The Detroit Tigers and right-hander Kenta Maeda have agreed to a two-year contract, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Maeda will earn $24M in guaranteed money and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes that the deal will be official Monday should Maeda pass a physical.  Maeda is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Reports emerged earlier this week linking Maeda and the Tigers, though the Minnesota Twins (Maeda’s former team) maintained interest.  Minnesota will now have to deal with Maeda as an opponent on a division rival, as Maeda will join the third team of his Major League career as he enters his age-36 season.

With Eduardo Rodriguez possibly leaving Detroit in free agency, Maeda steps in as the veteran presence within a Tigers rotation that is still pretty young and inexperienced overall.  Most of the Tigers’ young arms were also set back by injuries during the club’s nightmarish 2022 season, though Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning pitched well when healthy and Reese Olson stepped up as a legitimate rotation candidate.  At the moment, Maeda looks to be the No. 2 on the staff behind Skubal, with Manning, Olson and Casey Mize (set to return after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery).

This offseason marked the end of the incentive-heavy, eight-year, $25M deal Maeda signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers back in Jan. 2016, when Maeda first came to the Majors from Nippon Professional Baseball.  Maeda’s earning power at the time was somewhat limited due to some concerns over his elbow, though he didn’t have any major arm-related injury issues over four years in Los Angeles before the Dodgers dealt him to the Twins during the 2019-20 offseason.  Maeda responded with an outstanding performance in the pandemic-shortened campaign, posting a 2.70 ERA in 66 2/3 innings and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

With a more modest 4.66 ERA in 106 1/3 frames in 2021, the injury bug then finally bit, as Maeda had to undergo the internal-brace version of Tommy John surgery.  Using the brace theoretically could have reduced Maeda’s time on the injured list, yet he ended up missing the entire 2022 season.  His comeback year in 2023 was also shortened by close to two months by a triceps strain, but the numbers were pretty solid overall when Maeda did take the mound.

Maeda posted a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings for Minnesota.  Both the walk and strikeout rates were well above average, and Maeda wasn’t a high-velocity pitcher even before surgery, so his 90.9mph average was just slightly below his career norm.  Maeda did allow a lot of hard contact last year, which was something of a red flag considering that he very good and occasionally elite at inducing soft contact in the seasons prior to his brace procedure.

Between the hard-contact numbers, Maeda’s age and injury history, the expectation was that Maeda’s market might be limited to a two-year (or two years with an option) contract this winter.  MLBTR ranked Maeda 25th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a two-year, $36M pact for the right-hander.  The actual dollar figure will fall below our projection, perhaps suggesting that teams had concerns over Maeda’s ability to stay healthy.  Speculatively, it could also be that Maeda preferred to get a deal done sooner rather than later, perhaps as a nod to the strong interest shown by the Tigers this early in the winter.

An argument could’ve been made for the Twins to issue Maeda a qualifying offer as he entered free agency, yet with Minnesota planning to cut payroll next year, it is easy to see why the Twins might not have wanted to risk Maeda accepting the offer and locking in a $20.325M salary for 2024.  As a result, Minnesota won’t receive anything in compensation for Maeda’s departure. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson writes that the Twins only had interest in Maeda on a one-year contract.