Where do the Astros stand on futures of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman?

The Astros and general manager Dana Brown have been open about their interest in signing extensions with infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but the former may be more likely than the latter. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, a high-ranking executive with the club said they want Altuve for the rest of his career but are highly skeptical of getting something done with Bregman as well.

Bregman, 30 in March, already signed one extension with the Astros. Going into the 2019 season, he and the club agreed to a five-year pact with a $100M guarantee. He already had a 2019 salary in place, with that deal covering the 2020-2024 seasons. That leaves just one year and $28.5M left on the contract.

When pen was put to paper that time, Bregman was in between his two best seasons. In 2018, he launched 31 home runs and stole 10 bases, leading to a batting line of .286/.394/.532 and wRC+ of 157. He got strong grades for his defense at third and even played a passable shortstop for part of the year, leading to 8.0 wins above replacement per FanGraphs and a fifth-place finish in the voting for American League Most Valuable Player. The next year, he only stole five bases but his homer tally jumped to 41 and his on-base percentage was almost 30 points higher. That was the “juiced ball” season so his wRC+ only increased slightly to 167, but he finished second to Mike Trout in MVP voting that year.

Since then, Bregman has settled in a bit below that level, still a very good player but not quite MVP caliber. The past two seasons have seen him combine for 48 home runs and a .261/.364/.447 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 131. He produced 9.8 fWAR over the two years combined.

Though that technically qualifies as diminished production relative to his 2018-2019 peak, it’s still excellent work overall. Only 21 position players had a higher fWAR tally in 2022-2023, with Bregman fourth among regular third basemen behind just José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Austin Riley.

As of right now, Bregman is set to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season, which still lines him up for a solid payday. Marcus Semien was also an above-average infielder who generally produced a bit below MVP levels when he got $175M from the Rangers two years ago. Bregman’s former teammate George Springer was able to get $150M going into his age-31 season. Freddie Freeman nabbed an MVP award in 2020 but was a bit limited as a free agent since he only played first base and was going into his age-32 season, though he nonetheless got himself $162M.

Something in that range should be attainable for Bregman but it may not be from the Astros. The club has generally avoided long-term deals that run deep into a player’s career, letting guys like Springer, Carlos Correa and others walk away and get paid elsewhere. That strategy has continued to work out for them so far, as they just made the ALCS for a seventh straight season, but there are some pivot points coming up. Altuve and Bregman are both set to become free agents after 2024, with Justin Verlander perhaps joining them depending on his vesting option. One year later, it will be Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, José Abreu and others.

With such a significant chunk of their core nearing free agency, it’s not surprising that they want to pivot from their standard playbook in order to try to keep that mass exodus from coming to fruition. Things can always change but it seems the current feeling is that Altuve will get done but Bregman won’t. The club already has some significant deals for younger players on the books going forward, with Yordan Alvarez signed through 2028, Cristian Javier through 2027 and Lance McCullers Jr. through 2026. Perhaps those deals, and a theoretical Altuve contract, don’t leave much room for Bregman. Or perhaps Bregman simply wants to test the open market after having already signed one significant extension and banking nine figures.

It’s unclear if there are any strict timelines for negotiations, with Spring Training being the most common time for extensions to be hammered out. At this time of year, clubs usually prefer to focus on bringing in new players from free agency and trades, before pivoting back to talks with their incumbent players in February and March. However, the Astros don’t seem to have a massive to-do list this winter, with Brown recently listing backup catcher and the bullpen as priorities. Perhaps that gives them a bit of breathing room this winter to have some detailed talks with Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, to see if anything can get done. Boras will certainly be busy though, as he is representing a pile of this winter’s free agents, including Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and many more.