Why Diamondbacks will win 2024 World Series

Year in and year out, the MLB playoffs prove to be one of the most unpredictable postseasons in sports. Since 2000, there have only been five years where the winningest team in baseball won the World Series (six if you count the COVID year). Last year, it was not the 104-win Atlanta Braves or 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers that represented the National League in the World Series, but rather the Arizona Diamondbacks, a wild card team with 84 wins.

Through timely hitting and surprisingly dominant pitching, the Diamondbacks reached the Fall Classic despite having the second-worst winning percentage of any World Series team.

After a busy offseason, the D-Backs are poised to return to the World Series in 2024. Here are two reasons why the Diamondbacks will win the World Series this season.

Improved starting rotation

The big question for the Diamondbacks entering the postseason last year was how the starting pitching would fair. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen were both All-Star level starters but after them, the likes of Tommy Henry and Brand Pfaadt were hardly seen as the type of starters who could bring the World Series crown back to the desert. Both youngsters had ERAs over 5.00 during the regular season. But Pfaadt had an ERA of 3.27 across 22 postseason innings, giving the Diamondbacks much-needed production from the number-three starting pitching slot.

Can Pfaadt continue his success into 2024 and can Henry achieve similar success alongside Ryne Nelson — another young starter? Arizona added Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency, thus creating a battle between that young trio for the final two spots in the starting rotation. Rodriguez was pitching at a Cy Young level before a finger injury cost him the month of June. The lefty had an ERA of 2.13 through the first two months of the year yet still finished with a respectable 3.30 ERA — the best of his nine-year career. Eduardo Rodriguez forms a fearsome trio alongside Kelly and Gallen, along with the recently signed Jordan Montgomery. But improvement from the back end of the rotation will be what separates the Diamondbacks in a tough National League West.

Power and speed

Last season, the Diamondbacks were primarily known for their speed on the basepaths. The club finished second in MLB with 166 stolen bases and were caught just 26 times — a success rate of better than 86%. Corbin Carroll led the way with 54 stolen bases while Jake McCarthy added 26 swipes despite not playing in an everyday role.

The D-Backs should be just as fast this year but will have more fearsome power hitters. Despite having four players hit at least 20 round-trippers, Arizona finished 22nd in the Majors in home runs last year. After the quartet of Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Lourdes Guriel, no player had more than 11 round-trippers. All four players are back and the team signed Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez in free agency.

Pederson is coming off a down year (.235 batting average with 15 homers), but his expected stats point toward a bounce-back year. Pederson finished in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 82 percentile in expected slugging — 75 points higher than he hit. Eugenio Suarez is coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons, leading Major League Baseball in strikeouts in both. He is still a power threat though. The veteran hit 30-plus homers in 2021 and 2022 and has a career .788 OPS. The Diamondbacks can expect at least 5o home runs from this newly-acquired duo in 2024.

Combine these power-hitting additions with the team’s existing speed, and the Diamondbacks suddenly have one of the league’s most fearsome offenses.