ESPN model predicts new champ for NFC East

ESPN’s Mike Clay is an Eagles fan and even worked for the team, but even he admits the Cowboys have a bright future.

Every offseason, Clay releases projections for every NFL team. In 2023, he projects the Dallas Cowboys for 10.8 wins, just above the Eagles (10.3) and good enough to win the NFC East.

That’s not a stretch. The Cowboys are coming off consecutive 12-win seasons for the first time since 1995 and just had their best offseason in recent memory. Not only did the team re-sign some of its better players (RB Tony Pollard and LB Leighton Vander Esch), but the Cowboys also traded for dynamic players in positions of need (CB Stephon Gilmore and WR Brandin Cooks).

Thanks largely to Dallas' balanced roster, Clay predicts the Cowboys to finish 2023 as the NFL’s fourth-best team. Even with bottom-10 grades for linebackers and interior defensive line, he still ranks Dallas' defensive unit as fifth-best overall. 

Clay projects Dallas' offense will be fourth best in the NFL. That’s no small feat considering he believes Dak Prescott will once again lead the league with 15 interceptions and finish just outside the top 10 for quarterbacks.

With Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture, Clay thinks Pollard will be top 10 among running backs for touches (282), scrimmage yards (1,473) and touchdowns (10). All would be career highs, although the touchdown number seems a bit low considering he had nine scores while sharing the backfield with Elliott last season.

According to Clay’s data, Dallas will play the 12th-hardest schedule in 2023 and is favored to win 14 games. The Cowboys will be a slight underdog when they visit Philadelphia but are favored to beat the Eagles at home. Their toughest test looks to be a road game against Buffalo in which Clay gives the team a 39% chance of winning.

Clay has been pretty accurate with rankings and projections at ESPN and has created several categories for advanced football statistics such as "average depth of target" (aDOT) that are now considered mainstream.

So rejoice, Dallas fans, you're team has been crowned NFC East champs ... in April.