Jaguars game-by-game predictions after 2024 NFL schedule release

After a playoff berth seemed certain, the Jacksonville Jaguars somehow ended their season on the outside looking in. The Jaguars were 8-3 heading into Week 13, but five losses in their last six games doomed a team that looked destined to build on their miraculous playoff victory in 2022.

The team filled many of its needs this offseason. An offensive line that gave up far too many sacks and failed to open up enough rushing lanes was improved through the addition of center Mitch Morse while re-signing a healthy Matthew Cleveland at guard. In the secondary, the team added Darnell Savage and Ronald Darby to a unit that struggled to stop anybody in the air. The additions of wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. — a rookie first-round pick out of LSU — and free agents Gabe Davis and Devin Duvernay give star quarterback Trevor Lawrence a high level of talent around him.

With the 2024 NFL schedule officially out, it is time to predict Jacksonville’s record for the upcoming season. The Jaguars have just two primetime games and do not have a Thursday night contest, though they will play their Week 6 and 7 fixtures in London, England. They are also tied for the eighth-toughest schedule in 2024 based on the winning percentage of their 2023 opponents.

How will the Jaguars do in 2024? Here is our game-by-game predictions for Jacksonville after the 2024 NFL schedule release.

Week 1 at Miami Dolphins

The Jaguars begin the year with the unenviable task of facing the Miami Dolphins in the searing South Florida heat. While the Jacksonville secondary is improved, stopping this juggernaut of an offense is too tall of a task for Doug Pederson’s team.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 2 vs. Cleveland Browns

A tough Week 1 loss against the high-flying Dolphins gives way to a hard-nosed home opener in Week 2 against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland’s defense allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL last season and will have a healthy Deshaun Watson under center to start the 2024 campaign. Still, the Jaguars bounce back after a disappointing defeat to get their first win.

Prediction: WIN

Week 3 at Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville’s early-season gauntlet continues with a trip to Buffalo to face off against a Bills team also looking to rebound from a disappointing finish to last year. Josh Allen’s offense must replace its top two receivers, with Buffalo trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency. This duo combined for nearly 2,000 yards last season but it is easy to forget that Diggs averaged just 45 receiving yards per game once offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in Week 11.

There will be an adjustment period for the Bills’ aerial attack, but their strong ground game carries them to victory in this tussle.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 4 at Houston Texans

The schedule-makers did the Jaguars no favors early in the season, as the Jags face their fourth straight 2023 playoff team to open the 2024 season. A 10-win Houston Texans team added even more offensive weapons in the off-season — trading for Stefon Diggs and signing running back Joe Mixon — but their defensive additions cannot be overlooked either. The team brings in Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry (combined 28 sacks in 2023) plus linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.

The Texans are easily the favorites to win the AFC South and should emerge victorious in Week 4.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

While a home game against Indy will seem easy compared to the Jaguars’ previous games, this contest will be crucial for two divisional rivals who will likely be neck-and-neck for a playoff berth this year. Anthony Richardson is back under center for the Colts after backup Gardner Minshew nearly led Indianapolis to the postseason in 2023. Richardson will still be getting up to speed early in the year, giving the Jaguars the advantage in this one.

Prediction: WIN 

Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears are coming off a 7-10 season having posted a four-win improvement over the previous year. Will the addition of number-one overall pick Caleb Williams help Chicago continue on this positive track or will it mean a return to square one? Either way, the Jaguars are the more well-rounded team and should be good enough to defeat their NFC North foe in the first of two consecutive games in London.

Prediction: WIN

Week 7 vs. New England Patriots

Another matchup against a rookie starting quarterback, the Patriots will once again be in the running for the number-one overall pick. This should be an easy victory for the Jaguars, but don’t be surprised if New England makes a game of it.

Prediction: WIN

Week 8. vs. Green Bay Packers

The final contest of a four-game “homestand”, Jacksonville returns to North Florida to face a Green Bay team that came within a few plays of reaching the NFC Championship Game last season. Jordan Love might regress a bit now that he has a target on his back, but this balanced Packers team is a step above the Jaguars at the moment.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 9 at Philadelphia Eagles

An 11-6 record is hardly a disappointing mark in the NFL, that is, unless you are a Super Bowl contender like the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly was 10-1 at one point last season before losing five of six games to close out the regular season and falling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card Round. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, all the pieces are in place for a bounce-back year for the Eagles. The Jaguars fall in their only Sunday Night Football appearance of the year.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 10 vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Kirk Cousins era is finally over in Minnesota, leaving the Vikings to rely on rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy or new signing Sam Darnold under center. Whoever starts at QB for the Vikes will have a strong group of skill players and an improved defense, making Minnesota a difficult opponent. Quarterback play proves to be the difference in this one, as Trevor Lawrence leads the Jaguars on a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: WIN

Week 11 at Detroit Lions

The Lions were 8-2 at home last season, with each of those defeats coming by just one score. Facing their fourth straight NFC team and their third NFC North team in four weeks, the Jaguars drop a tough one in Detroit — leaving them at 5-6 entering the bye week.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 12 — BYE

Week 13 at Houston Texans

Eight of Jacksonville’s first 12 opponents this fall were playoff teams in 2023, giving the team one of the 10 hardest schedules in the NFL in 2024. This game in Houston is set to be one of, if not the hardest matchup for Jacksonville in the second half of the season. Don’t expect an upset here.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 14 at Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars must wait until December for their first matchup against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were aggressive spenders in the off-season but will rely on young quarterback Will Levis to produce in 2024. Although Levis showed flashes as a rookie, he is still a few years away from being a playoff-caliber QB. The Jaguars pick up a big divisional win as they finally enter the soft part of their schedule in the final month of the campaign.

Prediction: WIN

Week 15 vs. New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets head south in another game that will be pivotal to the AFC playoff picture. What can the Jets expect from a guy who will have played four NFL snaps in the last 20 months? A-Rod’s last season in Green Bay was statistically the worst of his career and to come back at age 40 is a big ask even for one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

Prediction: WIN

Week 16 at Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pierce went 5-4 as interim coach of the Raiders to earn the franchise’s head coaching job this offseason. The Raiders don’t have much star power outside of wideout Davante Adams, but this is a solid, well-coached squad that should flirt with finishing above .500 in 2024. A close game goes the way of the Raiders as the Jaguars’ late-season struggles carry over from last year.

Prediction: LOSS

Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans

The first of two key divisional games to finish the season, the Jaguars must make sure they are not looking ahead to what could be a pivotal season finale in Indy. Fortunately, Trevor Lawrence is able to take down a tough and improving Titans team to get Jacksonville back to .500 for the first time since Week 2.

Prediction: WIN

Week 18 at Indianapolis Colts

Though neither team made the playoffs last year, both teams had win-and-in situations in Week 18. Will the same hold true in 2024? Probably not. In a deep AFC, it is difficult to see either squad hitting the 10-win threshold to ensure a playoff spot. Jacksonville wins this one, but it is not enough to get the team back to the postseason.

Prediction: WIN

Final Record: 9-8