NFL bet prep: Lessons from last year's rushing TD leaders

One of the most popular player props on an NFL Sunday is touchdowns. The odds are often listed at plus-money, and depending on a player's role and usage in the offense, you may be looking at bets in the +300 to +400 range.

As we gear up for our early-season spots to look, let's reacclimate ourselves with who scored the most last season. While these names weren't typically listed above +200, many were still often given to you at plus-money.

The goal of this piece is to remind us who had a nose for the end zone last year and if their roles will remain in place for this upcoming season.

We'll start this series with rushing touchdowns, and turn to receiving scores tomorrow.

The leading rushing touchdown scorers from last season

1. Jonathan Taylor (18)
2. James Conner (15)
3. Damien Harris (15)
4. Joe Mixon (13)
5. Austin Ekeler (12)
6. Ezekiel Elliott (10)
7. Derrick Henry (10)
8. Jalen Hurts (10)

Jonathan Taylor

After a promising rookie season that saw the Colts' Jonathan Taylor score 11 times on the ground, he followed it up with a sophomore explosion, rushing in 18 touchdowns.

Taylor is a bona fide workhorse back with plenty of tread on the tires. Don't expect to see Taylor near even-money, his odds are likely to be closer to -160 and -175 in most cases. A good Same Game Parlay option, but he won't be one you'll likely bet straight.

Taylor scored 2+ touchdowns in five games, a market that would offer you odds around +400. Still doesn't feel worth it for the amount of times it actually occurs.

Season total on DraftKings: 12.5 rushing touchdowns (-130) Betting thoughts: Good parlay option on a weekly basis

James Conner

Not many were paying attention to James Conner when he signed with Arizona last year, which is funny in hindsight given he had averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in every year with the Steelers and had scored 26 touchdowns in the three years prior.

Despite ranking 17th in the NFL in carries, Conner punched it in 15 times on the ground. There remains the presence of Kyler Murray, who is no stranger to rushing the football, and the Cardinals did sign Darrel Williams this offseason. Williams scored six touchdowns on the ground last year for the Chiefs and should have a role this year.

With DeAndre Hopkins suspended and Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz expected to miss the start of the year, this Cardinals offense feels like it could be quite inefficient to begin the year.

I'll be avoiding Conner, and actually have my eye on Williams once Arizona regains some weapons on offense.

Season total on DraftKings: 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-110) Betting thoughts: Will be avoiding to start the year.

Damien Harris

I was surprised to see Damien Harris near the top of this list, I forgot how often he was finding the end zone in 2021. Harris was tied for fourth in the NFL in red zone carries with 46 and should still have a role on the New England offense in 2022.

The elephant in the room is Rhamondre Stevenson. If you've done your Fantasy Football draft yet, you've likely seen how these two players are right next to each other on the draft board. It's hard to project who will take the majority of snaps this season, and Bill Belichick has famously been tough to predict with his RB usage.

Harris is one that should be plus-money, and one of these running backs should cross double-digit touchdowns this year. Stevenson scored five times himself, and now entering his season season, he could be in for a larger workload.

Season total on DraftKings: 8.5 rushing touchdowns (+100) Betting thoughts: Wait and see how the Patriots' backfield unfolds, but once settled, a New England RB is a great weekly bet to find the end zone.

Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon had his beat year in the pros in 2021, taking 292 carries for 1,205 yards and scoring 16 total touchdowns (13 on the ground). Now 26, Mixon should remain a focal point of this Bengals offense.

Similarly to the running back we'll highlight next, Mixon has the benefit of being attached to a high-scoring offense. Samaje Perine wasn't much of a vulture last year, taking just 55 carries and scoring only once.

This is Mixon's backfield, we might not be able to find him at plus-money this year.

Season total on DraftKings: 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-115) Betting thoughts: A good weekly choice if the odds are right.

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler found the end zone with a varied approach, rushing in 12 scores and catching 8 more. His previous career-high was 11 touchdowns in 2019, but he smashed his previous high of rushing scores, which was 3.

Los Angeles signed Sony Michel this week, who was fourth in the NFL last year with 46 red zone carries (Ekeler was second, with 48). Joshua Kelley chipped in only five carries in the red zone, but remains on the team.

I think the presence of Michel is enough to wait and see for Ekeler's early-season usage, but after failing to latch on to a Dolphins team that had limited RB options, perhaps Michel has lost a step.

This Chargers offense has the potential to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league, which will only benefit every and all Los Angeles RB.

Season total on DraftKings: 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-110) Betting thoughts: Wait and see approach, but if Ekeler is +150 or better to score, it's a bet worth considering

Ezekiel Elliott

Every year I wonder if Zeke Elliott is finally going to crash, as he has been run into the ground in his time at Ohio State and as a Cowboy. Elliott rushed for double-digit touchdowns last year for the third time in six years.

He remained surprisingly efficient despite the skepticism owned by yours truly, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. I'll die on this hill if I must, Tony Pollard is the better back at these stages of their career, and it's he who I'd prefer to bet on to score in 2022.

Elliott took 37 red zone carries to Pollard's 16, but Pollard scored only twice. Despite the lack of touchdowns, Pollard averaged 5.5 yards per carry. With more usage expected this year, I've got my eyes on Pollard props.

Season total on DraftKings: 8.5 rushing touchdowns (+100) Betting thoughts: Will be avoiding Zeke unless it's at +150 or higher, otherwise attention goes to Pollard.

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry scored 10 touchdowns despite playing just eight games, which should be all you need to know about the Titans star. He's averaged 13.75 rushing touchdowns per year over the past four seasons, and seems to be a rare breed that will outlast father time.

He will be similar to Jonathan Taylor, there is no chance you'll be able to bet Henry straight. There were times last year that his odds were near -200.

Season total on DraftKings: 13.5 rushing touchdowns (-115) Betting thoughts: A fine parlay option on a weekly basis, but there's better value to be had in the league.

Jalen Hurts

We wrap the double-digit rushing touchdown list with a quarterback. In Jalen Hurts first year as the starter, he had his ups and downs as a passer but showed no doubts to what he can do with his legs.

Hurts had long runs and was often used in quarterback sneaks from inside the 1 yard line. While we likely shouldn't expect 10 rushing touchdowns again, Hurts' odds could be around +200, and betting on a mobile quarterback to score is a strategy I can always get behind.

Season total on DraftKings: 8.5 rushing touchdowns (+120) Betting thoughts: A nice option every week, especially if his odds near +200.

We'll be back tomorrow with a look at the pass-catchers who topped the league last year, and whether they can do it again.

Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out our FREE bets page