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Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85). Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 12 player props: Packing our day with six solid looks

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/24/23

Week 12's Sunday slate will be a few games lighter with four games already having played, but that doesn't make for a shortage of solid looks. We're eyeing six such plays for this week in the NFL.

Given it's after Thanksgiving and I have leftovers to eat and family to be with, these writeups will be a bit shorter. To make up for it, I've highlighted six looks. Fair is fair, agreed?

Jaylen Warren over 47.5 rushing yards (-120 ESPN)

Cincinnati's run defense has been a major problem area. They've allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game to RBs, the second-most yards per rush attempt, and DVOA grades their run defense as the third-worst unit in football.

Jaylen Warren has been the far more electrifying running back on this Pittsburgh team of late. His last three games have yielded 88, 101 and 129 yards. Terrific ladder candidate here.

Derrick Henry over 69.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)

I'm just never going to stop betting running backs against the Panthers. Carolina is allowing the second-most yards per game to RBs at 114.8, and Henry is still the top back on Tennessee.

He has a rush attempts line of 15.5, heavily juiced to the over. When Henry sees 15+ carries, he's over this line in 22 of his last 28 games, averaging 104.4 yards per game.

David Njoku over 38.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson may be reason for pause, but this matchup sets up nicely for David Njoku. Denver has allowed the fourth-most receptions/game to TEs and in general is a defense that has struggled slowing down much of anything.

Njoku saw 15 (!) targets last week in DTR's start, and volume anywhere near there should help him hit his over. He has 50+ yards in four of his last five and six of the last seven TEs to see the Broncos has gone for 50+.

Demario Douglas over 4.5 receptions (+120 DraftKings)

The Giants are allowing the sixth-most receptions/game to wide receivers, and Douglas has been New England's top WR, and I don't really care who is at QB.

Douglas has 5+ catches and 7+ targets in three straight games. Plus-money? Sign me up.

Isiah Pacheco over 65.5 rushing yards (-120 Fanatics)

Las Vegas is a team to target on the ground. They've allowed the fifth-most yards per game to RBs and the fourth-highest yards per carry.

Pachecho has been running hard of late and seeing plenty of work in this Kansas City offense. He has 16 and 19 rush attempts over the past two weeks, going over this line both times.

Odell Beckham Jr. over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 Fanatics)

I love OBJ on Sunday night against this porous Chargers secondary. Los Angeles is allowing the most 20+ yard passes and passing yards per game this season, and Beckham has come on strong.

His last three games have seen him lead the team in targets and average 70.7 yards/game. With Mark Andrews out, I like OBJ to keep things rolling.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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