NFL Week 1: Betting on the Bills' Gabriel Davis

We've made it to the NFL! I'd like to use this space to highlight my preferred props and what you can expect from me this NFL season.

Long reception props are my favorite props on the market and where I am devoting my attention to in 2022. If you've never bet on these player props before, you are in for an absolute treat, especially if you're watching the game.

This is a bet on one singular play. You're betting on your receiver to exceed a certain amount of yards on one catch. Not only is it exhilarating to see a deep bomb land in the arms of your guy, but there is a rich amount of data to help fuel these picks. This was my most successful prop last year, and it's for that reason I want to give this market the attention it deserves.

We have some extremely talented and proven receivers hitting the field in the season's first game on Thursday, namely Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. That's not where our bet is going, however.

It's time for Gabriel Davis

Gabe Davis has been generating buzz for some time now, with its crescendo his performance against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round: 8 receptions, 201 yards, 4 touchdowns.

Davis is stepping into the WR2 role in Buffalo this year, as Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are both no longer on the team (more on that in a moment).

By the end of last year, Davis was playing more than 80% of the offensive snaps, a number that should near 85% this season.

He was targeted 27 times in Buffalo's final three games of the year, three more than Diggs. We have the role and volume we covet when honing in a prop, so check that box.

Davis is a deep threat, and even more so this season

When betting on a player to hit his long reception over, you'd like to see that he's being worked down the field. Sure, a guy can catch it short and make something happen after the catch, but we'd prefer for this number to be reached through the air.

Average depth of target (aDOT) is a metric you can expect me to drop in every article. aDOT quantifies how far down the field a player is being targeted. The higher the number, the more of a consistent vertical threat he is.

When looking at receivers who had a minimum of 30 targets in 2021, Davis' aDOT ranked 16th in the league (13.3).

Let's go back to Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders outpaced Davis in targets and snaps for much of the year in Buffalo, and he was quietly one of the most profitable receivers to bet on for a long catch. His aDOT of 14.96 was fourth-highest in the NFL. 

That's the role I expect Davis to occupy this year. 

20+ yard catches galore

While these lines will go above 19.5 yards for the more notable receivers, tracking how many 20+ yard passes is an easy way to measure a WR's role in the offense.

Despite a limited role in 2021, Davis topped Bills receivers with 13 catches of 20+ yards. Diggs was behind him at 12, and Sanders finished with 10. Cole Beasley chipped in five. Few quarterbacks have a prettier deep ball than Josh Allen, and him completing so many 20+ yard passes to his receivers is a great sign of things to come for Davis this season.