Tension likely to be overriding NFL Draft emotion for 49ers fans as franchise stays open to malpractice

What's the prevailing emotion among a fanbase of a team who just over two months ago lost the Super Bowl in overtime heading into the 2024 NFL Draft?

It's a difficult question to answer, but it's fair to suggest that there's probably a decent amount of apathy among fans of the San Francisco 49ers as their team prepares to pick 31st overall.

The Niners are scheduled to make 10 selections in the draft and have a good track record of finding starters under John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan, though 2022 is starting to look extremely unimpressive in that sense, save for the obvious exception of Brock Purdy.

But how can you get excited about your team potentially improving with an infusion of youth when you know it's such a long road to try to climb the mountain again? It's even more difficult to do so when you have the knowledge that the man you're competing with to reach the summit is Patrick Mahomes, who has now twice broken 49er hearts in dramatic fashion on the grandest stage.

With the Super Bowl still fresh in the memory, Niners fans can be forgiven for not feeling a sense of anticipation around the draft, and it would be understandable if the overriding emotion is concern, concern that the team is about to get worse by losing one of its best players.

Aiyuk saga overshadowing 49ers' draft

While general manager John Lynch has continued to publicly insist that they have no plans to trade Brandon Aiyuk, recent reporting suggests the All-Pro receiver, entering the final year of his contract, could still be dealt elsewhere on draft night.

Per Mike Silver of The San Francisco Chronicle, one team's general manager believes an Aiyuk trade is "still very much in play" due to a large financial gap in negotiations over a new contract. Aiyuk is said to want a deal with an average annual value over $25 million, with the Niners to this point reluctant to oblige.

Silver's report went on to say that the Niners have contacted at least one team's GM to gauge interest in an Aiyuk trade, but the conversations did not go any further due to a deep wide receiver class. 

The 49ers' asking price of a first-round pick is said to have put teams off, though Silver reported that another team's general manager believes San Francisco may ultimately accept a second-round pick. That would presumably be packaged with another selection, with Silver suggesting it could be packaged with a future selection, in his example a 2025 third-rounder.

Potential franchise malpractice

Let's be clear here. The 49ers' offense would be significantly worse off without Brandon Aiyuk, and trading him for anything less than a first-round pick would be franchise malpractice from an organization that has an excellent track record of retaining their stars.

With successive 1,000-yard seasons, Aiyuk has established himself as one of the best receivers in the NFL. He was third in yards per route run in 2023, second in yards per reception (17.9) and third in receptions of 20 yards or more (28). 

An outstanding route-runner at all three levels who shreds man coverage, Aiyuk was fifth in yards per route run (3.8) versus man last year and has proven himself a devastatingly efficient playmaker. Per Sports Info Solutions, Aiyuk led all pass-catchers with at least 50 targets in Expected Points Added per target. He was also first in positive play rate (69.2%), with the next closest wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle (61.5%) trailing him by nearly eight percentage points.

More importantly, he is immensely valuable to starting quarterback Brock Purdy, with whom he shares a remarkable rapport.

Purdy's favorite target

In his first full season as the Niners' starting quarterback, Purdy averaged 0.793 EPA per play when targeting Aiyuk. Those plays had a success rate of 69.1%, per nflindex.com. For context, Purdy led all NFL quarterbacks in 2023 with an EPA per play of 0.338 and a success rate of 56.4%. 

The 49ers have plenty of leverage in the talks with Aiyuk given they are comfortable allowing him to play on the fifth-year option and have the franchise tag in their back pocket for next year. However, when a player is as important as Aiyuk is to Purdy, he is in a strong position to command a deal near the top of market, and he gained further leverage on Wednesday with the news that the Detroit Lions had signed wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown to a four-year contract extension worth $120 million, carrying a average value of $28 million over the first three years.

That development only adds to the tension for 49ers fans knowing Aiyuk's price going up potentially increases the odds of San Francisco acquiescing and accepting a trade offer below their asking price.

Internally, the 49ers are calm about what is a crucial draft for the Niners in which they need to nail as many picks as possible to ensure a top-heavy and expensive roster is in a position to compete long term and that Purdy is in the best possible spot to succeed.

The reason for that relaxed atmosphere is Purdy himself.

A comforting position

Asked if this draft feels more loaded because of the pressure to build around Purdy in the final year before he is eligible for a potentially historic contract extension, Lynch told a pre-draft press conference: "No. I think you’re always thinking about that position and to know we have an answer there and a really good one, that’s comforting. 

"It allows us just to go and build around him and make our team stronger. And I think very highly of our roster, what we have. I think it’s going to be hard for these young kids to come in and make a mark. But there’s good players and that’s our job to find that because you have to have that. As many of our players as we’ve paid, you have to rely on rookie contracts. And so, we need to infuse all those things that I said earlier and we need some players to come out of this draft because they’re going to be playing next year and into the future. And that opportunity’s there."

The Niners' draft history says they will succeed in finding players who can contribute, but any positive additions they make to the incredible foundation they have built around Purdy will be undermined if one the most important bricks is removed.

With Purdy's contract extension on the horizon, the 49ers' desire to drive a hard bargain with Aiyuk is understandable. Still, the fact of the matter is that taking Aiyuk out of the picture would substantially hurt the Niners' hopes of competing for a Super Bowl in 2024 and in future, especially if the return in any trade does not put them in a position to land one of the better receivers in the draft as a replacement.

The draft is an opportunity to help keep the 49ers among the NFL's elite for the foreseeable future, but their remains a lingering worry that they will make a move that sabotages their hopes of taking advantage of Purdy's final cheap year and cementing their place as the gold standard in 2024. For that reason, Niners fans have every reason to feel nervous.