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Week 8 NFL mismatches: Why Russell Wilson should sizzle on Sunday
Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8 NFL mismatches: Why Russell Wilson should sizzle on Sunday

Yardbarker's Michael Nania analyzes the biggest positional mismatches each week during the NFL season.

GLOSSARY: DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation. 

EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team's "expected points value" (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play.  

Net Yards Per Pass Attempt: Passing yards per attempt adjusted for sack yardage.


Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson vs. Falcons defense

News flash: The Falcons' defense stinks.

Atlanta, which ranks last in the league in points allowed per drive (3.01), is especially awful against the pass. The primary culprit is a dreadful pass rush. Atlanta has gone sack-less in four straight games, the longest sack-less streak in franchise history. QB pressure is also lacking, as the Falcons have averaged just two quarterback hits per game over that span (league average is 5.3 a game).

Atlanta's secondary is unable to make enough plays to mitigate the lack of rush. The Falcons average just two passes defended per game (league average 4.2), worst in the league. They have the third-lowest interception percentage (0.9 percent, with two picks on 230 passes) and third-highest touchdown percentage (7.4 percent, with 17 touchdowns).

A defense can make up for any number of struggles by holding up in the red zone, but Atlanta is 27th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (65.5 percent). Again, the big issue is pass defense; Atlanta has allowed 12 red-zone touchdown passes, second most in the league. 

In Week 8, the Falcons' pass defense will be tested to the max by Wilson, one of the league's most dangerous quarterbacks in the red zone. Since the start of 2018, he has tossed 36 red-zone touchdown passes, second most in the league behind only Patrick Mahomes (40). Accumulating those TDs on just 107 attempts, Wilson owns a touchdown rate of 33.6 percent in the red zone, tops among the 28 quarterbacks with at least 50 red zone attempts since 2018.

No play demonstrates Wilson's red-zone wizardry more than this one, a touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett against the Rams in Week 5. The protection holds up well against a five-man rush, but nobody breaks open. Doing what he does best, Wilson escapes the pocket to extend the play. Under pressure while on the move to his left, Wilson lobs it up to the back left pylon. This throw looked like a throwaway on the broadcast view, but it turned out to be anything but. Somehow, Wilson dropped the ball perfectly into the tiniest of windows, all while throwing from an extremely unfavorable position. Lockett taps two feet in, completing one of the most precise passes ever thrown.

Jaguars pass rush vs. Jets offensive line

The 1-5 Jets are imploding, especially on the offensive line, where they have used three different starting combinations. New York could be on its way to a fourth combo because center Ryan Kalil has an elbow injury. Dragged from retirement before the season, he has been consistently abused in the running game, making it tough for Le'Veon Bell to find holes up the middle. Because of poor blocking, only 23 of Bell's 326 rushing yards have come before contact. 

New York's tackle positions are a carousel: Brandon Shell started the first three games at right tackle, but was awful in pass protection and in the running game. He was replaced by rookie third-round selection Chuma Edoga (product of the Teddy Bridgewater trade), who struggles in the running game but looks fluid in pass protection. Left tackle Kelvin Beachum, out with an ankle injury, is off to a brutal start. Edoga slid over to left tackle in Week 7 against the Patriots but played terribly. Back at right tackle, Shell continues to be a major liability.

The lone bright spot is left guard Alex Lewis, the former Raven who was acquired in a trade by new general manager Joe Douglas. He has played well taking over for Kelechi Osemele, allowing only three pressures (and zero sacks) in three starts.

Expect Jacksonville, which ranks seventh in sack rate (7.7 percent) and sixth in pressure rate (28.9 percent), to exploit the Jets' major weakness. In the pass game, the Jets have allowed a sack rate of 12.4 percent, second highest in the league. Things could get especially ugly for quarterback Sam Darnold, who saw "ghosts" against New England on Monday night.

Edge defender Yannick Ngakoue already has a history of beating up this unit. In Week 4 of 2018, Ngakoue picked up a season-high seven pressures against the Jets. He did particularly well against Shell, beating him with an inside spin move on multiple occasions.

Rookie edge rusher Josh Allen has impressed for the Jaguars, collecting five sacks and 23 pressures through his first seven games. Allen has played particularly well rushing on the left side, where he is tied for fourth among edge defenders in sacks (five) and 18th in pressures (16). That could make Shell an enticing matchup for Allen as well.

The headliner of Jacksonville's pass rush is Calais Campbell, who leads all defensive linemen with 36 pressures. He has a rare NFL skill: the ability to blow up a play simply by dominating the man in front of him. 

On this play against the Titans, Campbell is on the defense's left side, lined up over the right tackle's inside shoulder. At the snap, he rushes against the right guard. With a sidestep and a violent swipe from his right hand, Campbell easily wins his way into the A-gap, creating pressure up the middle under two seconds after the snap. Campbell finishes strongly as he brings down the unaware Marcus Mariota for the quick sack.

Not many 6-foot-8 linemen move that quickly and fluidly. When special physical traits are combined with top-notch fundamentals, as is the case with Campbell, you have a special player. He possesses a wide array of pass-rush moves, and knows how and when to use each of them. Campbell is dominant against the run too. Since 2018, he has 34 tackles in the run game for no gain or a loss, tied with Carolina's Luke Kuechly for the most in the league.

Rams run defense vs. Bengals rushing attack

You hear it all of the time ⁠— the NFL is a pass-first league. Teams are completing more passes per game this season (22.5) than ever. This will likely be the seventh season of the decade in which a record for pass completions per game will be set. But the running game is not completely  irrelevant. 

If you can run, you can assure your chances of winning. The Bengals can't run, and so they lose. A lot.  Offensively, Cincinnati (0-7) is last in rushing yards per game (53.1) and yards per rushing attempt (2.9). First-year head coach Zac Taylor's Bengals are on track to become perhaps the worst rushing team in NFL history. Their rushing yardage margin of -951 is the worst through seven games in league history.

The Rams are second in rush defense DVOA and third in yards per rushing attempt allowed (3.4). Tackle Aaron Donald -- who has nine run tackles for no gain or a loss, tied for the second most in the league behind Grady Jarrett (9) -- is the driving force behind L.A.'s elite run defense.

In Week 2, the Rams held the Saints to 57 rushing yards, New Orleans' third-worst game mark since drafting Alvin Kamara in 2017. Donald played a huge role in making that happen. On the play below, he is the 3-technique on the defense's left side, lined up over the right guard's outside shoulder. The guard comes in high, and Donald easily disengages him with great hand usage, winning to the outside immediately. As soon as Kamara gets the handoff, Donald is there to drop him for a six-yard loss. He may be the most dominant player in the league. 

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