New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17). Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 9 'MNF' player prop: Where there's a Wilson, there's a way

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/6/23

Everything comes up Garrett Wilson this week against the Los Angeles Chargers, which makes his line all the more surprising. Plenty to like about this situation for the Jets WR tonight on "Monday Night Football," let's dig in.

Garrett Wilson over 66.5 receiving yards (+130 DK w/ 50% boost)

I'm so surprised that this is where we're getting Wilson's receiving total in this one. There's merit in saying that the Chargers have been the worst secondary in football this season.

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They're allowing the most 20+ yard passes per game, and they're allowing the highest yards per pass attempt and the most passing yards per game. DVOA also has their pass defense set at 27th in the league, backing up some of the more traditional metrics.

Then you look at what top wide receivers have done against Los Angeles. Rashee Rice went over his line two weeks ago with 60 yards. CeeDee Lamb flew past his, finishing with 117. Justin Jefferson (149) and Tyreek Hill (215) have also sported monster games against this secondary.

At just 66.5 yards, Wilson feels like a must-bet to me. He's the top wide receiver on this offense and it's not even close. Over the past four weeks, Wilson is averaging 76 yards per game and 11.5 targets per game, thrice seeing 12+ looks from Zach Wilson.

That helps to explain why Garrett Wilson has finished with 90 and 100 yards the past two weeks. He's seen 12+ targets six times in his career, averaging 100.5 yards per game when he gets that involved.

I absolutely love this line and price on the Jets top wide-out, and my only concern is I'm being too conservative by not also loading him up for some higher totals.

I would play Wilson up to 90+, which you can get at +205 on DK. I'll stick at this number for now considering I'm able to get it at plus-money with the DraftKings boost.

Good luck tonight!

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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