What Was C.J. Stroud's Most Improbable Throw?

Originally posted on FanNation Texans Daily
By Casey Smith | Last updated 9/27/23

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud's accuracy, especially on downfield throws, and poise are a few of the reasons why they selected him with the No. 2 overall draft pick.

Stroud completed 20 passes on 30 attempts in the Texans' 37-17 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium Sunday, but the NFL's Next Gen Stats deemed these four to be the most difficult.

The rookie's most improbable throw was his 46-yard completion to wide receiver Tank Dell down to the Jaguars' 2-yard line that set up running back Dameon Pierce's 1-yard touchdown run. Stroud's throw had 51.4 yards of air under and only an 18.4 percent chance of a completion, dropping it in the bucket between two converging Jacksonville defenders, according to Next Gen Stats.

Dell hit a top speed of 20.82 mph, which was the fastest top-end speed of any ball-carrier, according to Next Gen Stats.

TANK DELL grabs the 46-yard bomb - Texans up 7-0 pic.twitter.com/l8PngpKOi5
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 24, 2023

The second-most improbable pitch-and-catch was a 9-yard throw to wide receiver Robert Woods on an angle route. Woods flanked Stroud to the left in the shotgun, ran towards the flat then cut back in, hauling in a pass with just 0.3 yards of separation, according to Next Gen Stats, between he and Jaguars safety Andre Cisco.

There was a 31.9 percent chance of a completion.

Next Gen Stats deemed the third-most improbable throw a negative-yardage throw.

On Stroud's -3-yard pass to running back Devin Singletary, linebacker Josh Allen was just 0.8 yards away from recording a sack, resulting in a 40.3 percent chance of a catch.

Though it looked routine with how open Dell was, Stroud's 68-yard touchdown pass to him was the fourth-most improbable throw, according to Next Gen Stats, with a 42.5 percent completion probability. Linebacker Devin Lloyd was bearing down on Stroud, but left tackle Josh Jones got just enough of a body on him to keep just 0.8 yards of separation.

This article first appeared on FanNation Texans Daily and was syndicated with permission.

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