3 Takeaways From Devils’ 6-3 Loss to Oilers

Just 24 seconds into the game, Ryan McLeod scored for Edmonton as the Devils’ defense missed an assignment and left him wide open to cash in. Exactly five minutes later, the defense was scrambling again and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was left to bang home a rebound. It was 2-0 just like that.

Neither goal was necessarily a bad goal by Akira Schmid, but head coach Lindy Ruff sent a wake-up call to the team by pulling him despite only facing six shots (.667 SV% – save percentage). To not much surprise, the boo birds were out and about at the Prudential Center. And reasonably so. It certainly felt like the same story, a different day type of scenario. 

The Devils have allowed the first goal of the game a whopping 22 times, which is the worst mark in the entire league. They’ve only scored the first goal on nine occasions. That means in over 70 percent of their contests, they’ve immediately gone down a goal. When they do score first, they’re 7-1-1. They’re 9-12-1 when they don’t. It makes a massive difference.

They’ve only won six out of 16 home games, which is also terrible. Ruff has continued to make it a talking point, but nothing has changed.

He did not mince words in his postgame presser: “We got our asses kicked.”

Although, it doesn’t matter what any player or coach says if the theme doesn’t change. And so far, nothing has indicated any sort of positive momentum on that front.

Goaltending Woes…Again

Goaltending has continued to be a discussion point since the early days of this campaign. It’s a huge reason that the Devils have continued to be linked to goalies around the league in recent trade rumors. 

The Devils were able to shake off that horrid start and battle back, eventually taking a 3-2 lead after two periods. With this goaltending, it truly has felt like no lead is safe. And that was exactly the case here, as Vitek Vanecek gave up goals on three consecutive shots early in the third, and four total goals in the frame.

Yes, there have been issues with the young defense and they certainly didn’t help out either netminder. But the inability to get the big save when they need it has continued to plague the team, and one would have to wonder how much longer it could go on.

Both goalies had a combined .842 SV% in this one. Even in the better defensive games, the goalies have continued to make fewer saves than expected night in and night out.

According to MoneyPuck, the duo came into the contest with a combined minus-9.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Presumably, that will only go down more as Edmonton scored six goals on 2.63 expected goals. 

When asked if there was any worry about goaltending, Ruff responded: “I worry. I worry after every loss…you have got to maintain a level of consistency…”

This echoes the comments from a few weeks ago when Ruff voiced some concern about where the goalies’ statistics were at. It seems like this is a crucial time for general manager Tom Fitzgerald to potentially make a move.

Alarming Trend with Lindy Ruff

Ruff took some of the blame for the struggles: “After taking a day off yesterday, the way we came out…that’s really on me.”

After doing some digging, I came across an alarming parallel to Ruff’s tenure with the Dallas Stars. In the 2015-16 season, the Stars went 50-23-9 (109 points) under his leadership. With increased expectations, the 2016-17 season saw Dallas go 34-37-11 (79 points) and miss the playoffs. Ruff was let go after the conclusion of the season.

Last season, the Devils went 52-22-8 (112 points), breaking their franchise win record. So with similarly increased expectations, they currently sit 16-13-2 (34 points), outside of a playoff spot.

In the Devils’ tremendous campaign in 2022-23, they had just a plus-2 goal differential in the first, compared to plus-11 in the second and plus-39 in the third.

Eerily similar, the Stars’ successful 2015-16 campaign saw a plus-6 goal differential in the first, compared to plus-11 in the second and plus-29 in the third. In that abysmal 2016-17 Stars season, they only scored the first goal in 37 of 82 games and got outscored by 15 in the first period. That seems to be roughly what this current Devils team would be on pace for. 

In terms of shot differential, the Devils are minus-30 in the first this season, compared to plus-30 in the second and plus-74 in the third. It’s too much of a drastic difference to be a coincidence.

Essentially, what this all shows is that Ruff’s teams typically start off slow and bank on a later surge to win hockey games. That’s great if every aspect of the team is clicking into place, like it was last season. But it’s not a recipe for long-term and repeatable success.

The Devils have faced some adversity…goaltending has been atrocious. Their two shutdown defensemen, Jonas Siegenthaler and John Marino, have underperformed. They have two defensemen who are unable to legally buy a drink in America and are adjusting on the fly. And injuries have plagued them as well.

Regardless, with the talent on the roster, they should be able to overcome that. But based on Ruff’s history in a season with some massive expectations, there’s definitely reason for worry. Now, this isn’t exactly a call for Ruff’s job; ultimately it’s up to the players to get the job done. But it’s certainly food for thought.

As captain Nico Hischier said, “We have to learn from these mistakes. We just can’t shoot ourselves in the foot every time.”

It’s a strange theme because a lot of the early first-period mistakes are due to poor puck management and losing 50/50 battles, both major points of emphasis from Ruff. But over the past decade, in terms of Ruff’s coaching, slow starts have constantly been a theme. It seems that continually harping on it has done nothing. At this point, it already feels like beating a dead horse. What will it feel like if this trend continues another week? Month? Or a repeat of the 2016-17 Stars; the whole season?

Clock Is Ticking

It seems like most key Metro Division matchups have gone into overtime, meaning teams are continuing to rack up points even in losses. In fact, the Devils have more wins than the New York Islanders, who currently sit in the third playoff position thanks to nine overtime/shootout losses. But when the Devils are playing poorly, they can’t even push it to overtime to grab a coveted loser point. 

They’ve officially played 31 games, meaning they’re inching closer towards the halfway point of the season. There have been too many bad showings to give confidence that the team will turn it around. There remain a lot of complex issues, and time is of the essence.

Don’t push the panic button yet; it’s still way too early. But it would really benefit the Devils to start stringing wins together quickly, before it gets to that point.

That could possibly start with a much-needed victory on Saturday (Dec. 23) against a Detroit Red Wings team that handed it to the Devils just before Thanksgiving.