A Deeper Look at Brandon Hagel’s Eight-Year Extension He Signed

Brandon Hagel joined the Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline and signed an 8-year, $52 million extension this past week.

It all started when the Buffalo Sabres cut forward Brandon Hagel during the summer of 2018. Next, the Chicago Blackhawks signed him to a three-year entry-level contract. Then, Hagel joined the Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline. Furthermore, the contract that Hagel and General Manager Julien Brisebois agreed upon kicks in at the start of the 2024-25 season.

Brandon Hagel Signed Massive Extension With Lightning

Hagel brings stamina, aggression, and speed to the roster. He’s tenacious on the forecheck and relentless on the puck. Additionally, he’s one of the hardest-working players in hockey. Hagel’s work ethic comes from his background. Being cut from a terrible Sabres team in 2018 made him the player he is today.

Hagel’s Breakout Season in 2023

Brandon Hagel signed this contract after having enjoyed a breakout season. In 2022-23, he had 30 goals and 64 points in 81 games. He ranked in tied for third on Tampa Bay in goals (Nikita Kucherov) and three way tie for fourth. Moreover, he scored 48 points at even strength. Hagel experienced top powerplay minutes with the Lightning at points in the season. He notched seven goals and 13 points in 190 minutes on the powerplay.

Hagel is another prime example of fitting the Lightning’s 2-3 press like a glove. He scores garbage goals off rebounds in front of the net. Corey Sjanzder grades Hagel in the upper echelon of rebounds and deflections (All Three Zones micro-stats tracking project) along with the rest of Tampa Bay’s players. Hagel ranked in the 91st percentile of rebounds per hour. In addition, he placed in the 92nd percentile of deflections amongst forwards. However, Hagel can provide offence in different ways.

Offensive Transition Upside

Not only can Hagel play in the offensive cycle, but he’s also emerged as an effective rush threat. He found chemistry with Tampa Bay’s top offensive forwards, including Kucherov and Brayden Point. Hagel isn’t the primary puck carrier on the rush. Yet, he carries the puck using his speed. Hagel ranked in the 76th percentile of controlled zone entry percentage. Moreover, he placed in the 67th percentile of controlled zone entries per hour.

The one aspect Hagel can improve is turning his controlled zone entries into scoring chances. He has the speed and puck-carrying skills to enter the zone. However, Hagel can enhance his decision-making. Hagel ranked in the 18th percentile of controlled entries leading to scoring chances last season. Teams need to be able to break out of the zone in order to attack on offence. Breakouts are the most underrated aspect of Hagel’s game.

Breaking Out of the Zone

Garret Hohl released a very informational tweet this past season. “Roughly 25% of uncontrolled defensive zone exits (chips or dump outs) end up with the same team having the next offensive zone entry attempt.” About 40% of the time, the other team carries the puck back into the zone. Less than 25% of the time, the other team dumps the puck back in. The final 10% consists of offsides, icings, and failed entries.

In other words, players who can skate the puck out of the defensive zone are much more efficient and valuable. Hagel excels in this category, especially this year with Tampa Bay. Hagel ranked in the 75th percentile of exits with possession per hour. He also placed in the 76th percentile of successful zone exit percentage. Additionally, he frequently retrieves the puck and creates zone exits for the Lightning.

Outlook for Next Season

Hagel is guaranteed a spot in the Lightning’s top-six forward group. He can slot on the first line alongside Kucherov and Point. He can also play the second line with Anthony Cirelli and Conor Sheary. Hagel may experience some regression, but 50 or more points with 25 or more goals is a reasonable floor. 

The Lightning will remain a very competitive squad with top-end talent next season. The team rested after three Stanley Cup Final appearances from 2020 to 2022. With the loss of Alex Killorn to the Anaheim Ducks, Hagel and Sheary will play vital roles for Tampa Bay next season.