An offseason checklist for the New York Islanders

While the Islanders would like to lock Dobson up on a long-term deal, that would go against Lamoriello’s tendencies as he has continually opted for bridge contracts for his core RFAs, including Barzal and defenseman Ryan Pulock in recent years. A short-term pact would also allow them some extra cap flexibility to try to upgrade their roster. That makes the bridge deal the likeliest scenario.

The extremes between Dobson’s first two seasons and this one will make it tricky to find the right number. A two-year deal with an AAV around the $3M range is more than what Pulock and Adam Pelech received on their second contracts, while a third season could push it closer to the $4M range. Anything longer than that would walk Dobson to unrestricted free agency, so it’s likely that three years is the maximum term that New York will want to go.

Rebuild The Defense

Over the past few years, the NHL has started to shift towards a more mobile back end. The Islanders have been one of the exceptions, but now this is the right time to try to kickstart that change.

Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene have been successful defensemen in the league for quite a while, but mobility has been an issue for both of them while their offensive games are also quite limited. Both are pending unrestricted free agents and should be replaced with younger, better fits. Sebastian Aho is more of a mobile blueliner but has struggled in his own end in limited NHL action. He’s also a pending UFA and will need to be retained or replaced. That’s three roster spots that they’ll need to try to fill within their limited cap space and, in terms of in-house options, only Robin Salo might be able to push for a spot at the end of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that Scott Mayfield is a year away from UFA eligibility and will be eyeing a sizable raise from the $1.45M cap hit he’s on now. Any multi-year commitments they make this summer will offset how much they can give to Mayfield a year from now, so that’s something Lamoriello will have to weigh as he navigates the open market this summer.

With Pelech, Pulock and Dobson, the Islanders have a strong core that is either signed or under club control for at least the next four years. Now, improvements will need to be made at the bottom end within a very tight cap situation to start moving towards a younger, more mobile defensive group.

Work On Barzal Extension

Three years ago, the Islanders and Barzal eventually worked out a three-year bridge deal, one that will be expiring next summer. That means once the calendar flips to the start of the 2022-23 league year in mid-July, the two sides will be able to work on a contract extension. After the season, Barzal stated that he wants to work out a long-term contract and is hopeful to remain with New York for his full career.

Barzal will be owed a qualifying offer of $8.4M, which is 120% of his current AAV. He’ll also have arbitration eligibility at that time. That qualifying number serves as the minimum starting point for negotiations. If the 25-year-old doesn’t like what the long-term offers look like, he can accept the qualifier in 2023 and become UFA-eligible a year later.

The potential challenge here is that Barzal hasn’t exactly produced at a level that’s worthy of offering considerably more than the qualifier. While he averaged more than a point per game in his rookie season, the most he has gotten since then is 62 points. He’s their most gifted offensive player, but in a more defensive environment under Trotz, his numbers have suffered. If Barzal thinks things will open up under Lambert, it may make more sense for him to play out next season and see what happens from there knowing the qualifying offer will still be on the table at that time. But if Lamoriello comes in with a long-term offer in the $9M range, it might be enough to give Barzal a chance to play for the Islanders for a long time to come.

They may not get a deal done this summer, but both sides seem likely to give it a shot. It isn’t as pressing as some of the other elements that will affect their plans for next season, but as the offseason goes on and things slow down, that would be an optimal time to get to work on Barzal’s file.