Analyzing Future Tampa Bay Lightning All-Star for the Next Decade

From the tweets above, fans labeled Hagel as a “third-line player,” or they never knew he existed entirely. Hagel joined the Lightning for their 2022 Stanley Cup Playoff run, where the Bolts lost to the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Final. The newest member of the Lightning did not impress in his first stint with the team. Hagel recorded only seven points in 22 games with the Lightning to close the regular season. Moreover, he tallied six points in 23 playoff games.

Brandon Hagel Turns the Corner and Will One Day Become an All-Star

Heading into the 2022-23 campaign, Hagel earned an opportunity on the top line alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Hagel flourished under this role, scoring 30 goals and 64 points in 81 games. Furthermore, 48 of those points came at even strength. While Hagel earned an opportunity on the power play, he provided tremendous value at 5v5.

Furthermore, Hagel started to use his speed to his advantage on the rush. Corey Sznajder’s workbook (All Three Zones) backs this claim up. Hagel ranked in the 76th percentile of controlled zone entry percentage. Moreover, he placed in the 67th percentile of controlled zone entries per hour. Last season, Brandon Hagel proved he had the tools to develop into an NHL all-star. However, he ranked in the 18th percentile of zone entries with chances per hour. However, he has translated his entries to chances in 2023-24.

On Pace for 70 Points in 2023-24

Hagel has been a treat to watch for Lightning fans so far this season. He ranks fifth on the team with 43 points in 50 games in all situations. His even-strength play makes Hagel super valuable to the Bolts. Hagel ranks third on the Lightning with 28 points at 5v5. Furthermore, 75% of his points at 5v5 are primary (nine goals and 13 primary assists). From a league-wide standpoint, Hagel ranks tied-25th in 5v5 points amongst forwards. 

Transition Game

Once again, Hagel has been deadly in transition for the Lightning this season. From our micro-stats tracking project for the Lightning here at Last Word, we discovered Hagel is one of the best at zone entries. He ranks second in zone entries, second in zone entry passes, first in zone entry dump-ins, and second in zone entry attempts. Hagel is fantastic on the forecheck. He ranks first on the Lightning with a 5.13% successful retrieval percentage. 

Even-Strength Dominance

Hagel has been the most dominant player at 5v5 for the Lightning this season. We will use on-ice statistics from Natural Stat Trick to prove this point. Hagel leads the Lightning in expected goals percentage at 5v5 (55.53 xGF%). Moreover, he ranks second in high danger corsi percentage at 55.51%. Hagel is providing near-elite offensive rates for the Lightning. His 3.16 goals per hour ranks third behind Kucherov and Point. Hagel has proven himself worthy of carrying his line with Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul over the past few weeks. 

Lock Down Defence Will Make Brandon Hagel an All-Star Eventually

The development of Hagel in the defensive zone this season is noticeable. Hagel allows the fourth-least on the Lightning in expected goals per hour on-ice (2.38 xGA/60). In addition, when Hagel is on the ice, the Lightning allow expected goals at a rate ten percent better than the league average this season, according to HockeyViz. Fans can not deny his two-way dominance this season. 

Future Outlook to Project Brandon Hagel as an NHL All-Star

Hagel is here to stay in Tampa Bay for the next eight seasons. His contract is shaping up to be one of the steals for years. Hagel is facing top competition and playing shutdown defence. Additionally, he proved he is more than a complimentary guy in the lineup. We believe he is capable of a first-line role on any NHL team. Therefore, Brandon Hagel is an all-star in the making for years to come.