Breaking down the conference finals goalie matchups

The third round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs is set, with four teams left standing.

Which teams should be confident in goal? Which should have concerns? Read on for my thoughts heading into the conference finals.

Colorado Avalanche (1) vs Edmonton Oilers (2)

Darcy Kuemper (COL): 9 GP, 6-2, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV%

Pavel Francouz (COL): 2 GP, 2-0, 2.97 GAA, .902 SV%

Mike Smith (EDM): 12 GP, 8-3, 2.70 GAA, .927 SV%, 2 SO

Mikko Koskinen (EDM): 2 GP, 0-1, 5.23 GAA, .865 SV%

Kuemper has won six of eight starts this postseason for the Avalanche, but I think it’s been really difficult for the 6-foot-5 netminder from Saskatoon to find any rhythm. Colorado is averaging just 27 shots against per game – the lowest of any NHL team in the 2021-22 postseason.

I’ve been in Kuemper’s skates before, playing behind an immensely talented team that doesn’t give up a whole lot of chances. It’s not easy to stay focused when the puck is constantly at the other end of the ice.

During Colorado’s second-round matchup against the St. Louis Blues, I thought Kuemper was fine. He made the saves necessary to win the series. There were times where I thought his movements weren’t as crisp as they needed to be, and his puck-tracking suffered. He was beaten clean on multiple occasions, and his .892 save percentage during the series reflects that.

St. Louis and Edmonton have similarities. Both teams are good on the rush and have lethal power plays, but the Oilers have an X-factor in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl that St. Louis didn’t. Kuemper is going to be challenged by McDavid’s speed and hands in tight, and Draisaitl will be able to expose seams on lateral plays.

Kuemper isn’t a great skater, and that concerns me facing Edmonton. I think the less time Kuemper spends in the white ice, the better. The Avalanche goaltender needs to stay close to home and minimize distance traveled.

And therein lies an interesting aside to this goalie matchup: Kuemper would be wise to take a page out of the Mike Smith book of goaltending.

The 40-year-old Oilers netminder is notorious for playing deep in his crease – almost on the goal line at times. While I’m not suggesting Kuemper mimic Smith, I do think playing with a slightly more conservative depth would help Kuemper’s game.

Very rarely does Smith leave the entire net open. He almost always has a chance on the play because he doesn’t have to move far to get square. Yes, sometimes that leaves a lot of space for the shooter on a clean opportunity, but Smith trusts his reads and reflexes.

So far in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs, the Oilers are giving up 37.5 shots against per game on average, but many of those have been from the outside. Because Smith is able to arrive early due to his conservative depth, he’s able to control his rebounds.

There have been concerning moments for Smith. In the first round against the Los Angeles Kings, he flubbed a puckhandle that came back to haunt him, and in Game 1 of the third round against the Calgary Flames, Smith allowed three goals on 10 shots and was pulled after just over six minutes of action.

What I find impressive is his resilience. Smith bounced back with a win after each of those tough outings – including a 30-shot shutout in Game 2 against the Kings. 

Smith’s 3.40 goals against average against Calgary is a good reminder of why that statistic can be deceptive. He went 4-1 in the second round with a .907 save percentage. Smith saw a lot of rubber and was able to make the saves necessary to close out games.

With no disrespect to Los Angeles or Calgary, Smith is going up against a completely different animal in the Avalanche. Colorado has blown through the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs with little resistance. Smith would be smart to study up on the Avalanche’s rush game – something Blues goaltender Ville Husso was unable to control.

Smith’s puckhandling will play an important role in this series. The Edmonton breakout is built around his passing ability. Colorado has to keep the puck away from him – something the Avalanche didn’t do well against Jordan Binnington early in their second-round matchup against St. Louis.

I think the team that comes out on top in this series will feature a goaltender who’s stolen at least one game, maybe more. Smith already has in this year’s postseason. Can Kuemper steal one against McDavid and the Oilers? I think he’ll need to if Colorado wants to play for the Stanley Cup.

New York Rangers (2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3)

Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL): 11 GP, 8-3, 2.22 GAA, .932 SV%, 1 SO

Igor Shesterkin (NYR): 14 GP, 8-5, 2.68 GAA, .928 SV%

Alexandar Georgiev (NYR): 2 gp, 0-1, 2.04 GAA, .935 SV%

Vasilevskiy has won the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons and quickly cemented his legacy as one of the greatest clutch performers in the history of the sport. Since 2020, he’s a perfect 10-0 in potential elimination games. Vasilevskiy has an NHL-record six series-clinching shutouts to his name, and he just helped the Lightning sweep the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers in the second round of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs.

Despite a slow start against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round – Vasilevskiy posted an .892 save percentage – it didn’t take long for "The Big Cat" to find his game. He was lights out in Games 6 and 7 against Toronto and carried that momentum into the second-round matchup with the Panthers.

At this point, it’s more than just Vasilevskiy’s technique or mental strength that’s winning games for the Lightning. It’s the intimidation factor. Florida didn’t have an answer for Vasilevskiy, who allowed only three goals in four games. Nets were missed. Plays were forced. These things happen when a goalkeeper gets into the mind of the opposition.

Standing 6-foot-3, Vasilevskiy is just over average height for an NHL goaltender, but he plays much bigger. Vasilevskiy prefers a high stance when the puck is at a distance, which aids his mobility. He’s a great skater, and Vasilevskiy has the flexibility and dexterity to match his mental athleticism. The Lightning netminder can break technique in favor of creativity when called upon.

Two things stand out that Vasilevskiy will have to be prepared for when facing the Rangers: New York’s excellent rush game and a high volume of traffic in front. The Rangers have players like Chris Kreider and Andrew Copp, who are excellent in transition, and New York’s power play is especially lethal when defenseman Adam Fox is sifting pucks to the net with bodies converging around the blue paint.

The best part of this series is the head-to-head battle that will take place between Vasilevskiy and Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin. In one crease stands the best money goaltender in the world. In the other crease stands the best goaltender of the 2021-22 NHL regular season. Both are Russian.

Shesterkin is only in his second full-time NHL season, but he’s a mature athlete at 26 years of age. Shesterkin was a standout goaltender in the KHL for three years before making the jump to North America in 2019.

There’s no doubt Shesterkin is going to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender this season. He even has an outside chance at winning the Hart Trophy as the league’s MVP. 

Hardware aside, Shesterkin has propelled the Rangers to where they are now. New York has given up an inordinate amount of quality chances against, but Shesterkin has been able to cover up for his team’s defensive lapses.

I think what allows Shesterkin to be so effective is his skating. He’s powerful yet precise – a combination of attributes only achieved through years of diligent training. Arriving early and square to the shooter lets Shesterkin read the shot earlier than many of his contemporaries.

To me, that’s why the Rangers backstop so rarely gets beaten by a clean shot. His feet are set and his eyes are locked on the stick blade early, and Shesterkin prefers to play at a reasonable depth. He’s not overly aggressive. By staying between his posts and largely within the blue paint, Shesterkin gives himself a chance on almost every shot.

In the first round against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Shesterkin had to find a new level of emotional involvement to match the intensity of Stanley Cup playoff action. The Penguins swarmed his crease. Contact occurred, and I think it took a few rough outings for Shesterkin to understand the mentality necessary to win games in the postseason.

The second round saw the best version of Shesterkin. He posted a .949 save percentage while eliminating the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games. That last part is important: Shesterkin has played in – and won – two Game 7s so far during the 2021-22 Stanley Cup playoffs. That experience is invaluable.

In the conference final against the Lightning, Shesterkin will face a much more dynamic team than the Penguins or Hurricanes. Tampa Bay has plenty of offensive weapons, but the challenge of facing the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions didn’t faze the Rangers goaltender during the regular season. Shesterkin was 3-0 with one shutout and a .958 save percentage.

I believe there’s plenty of internal motivation for Shesterkin. Every athlete wants to be the best at what he does. This is the perfect opportunity for Shesterkin: a seven-game series against Vasilevskiy, whom many feel is the best in the world.

From a goaltending perspective, Shesterkin versus Vasilevskiy is a dream scenario akin to Marc-Andre Fleury going up against Carey Price in last year’s Stanley Cup playoffs — only this time it’s with two netminders in their mid-20s. The conference final might be the beginning of a long-lasting rivalry.