Cale Makar On-Pace to Outperform Norris Trophy Season

Makar’s game this season has been mainly overlooked due to the sheer offensive powerhouse MacKinnon has been and how prolific Quinn Hughes was to start the season, but Makar is beginning to catch up. He’s caught up to Hughes in multiple stats, even passing him in a couple to make the Norris Trophy race even tighter as the season continues.

Makar’s Offense Looking Better Each Season

So far through the 2023-2024 season, Cale Makar has nine goals and 39 assists for 48 points in 36 games and is currently riding a four-game point streak where he has totaled six points. While his goal-scoring production has been lower than expected, he can still produce at an elite level with his passing, playmaking, and all the weapons around him. His playmaking was shown best from Nov. 7 to Nov. 22, when he had an eight-game point streak that saw him produce two goals and 16 assists, with three straight three-assist games.

Makar currently ranks second in points, third in goals, and second in assists among NHL defensemen, all behind Hughes and only the Buffalo Sabres’ Rasmus Dahlin for goals. Makar is behind in specific stats but above Hughes in multiple advanced stats this season and is quickly catching up to the ones that Hughes leads. For five-on-five stats, Makar is ahead of Hughes in Expected Goals, Expected Goals Per 60, and High Danger xGoals, all while having 143 fewer shifts than Hughes.

Makar also leads in multiple defensive advanced stats as well, as he is second in all NHL defensemen in PIM differential (amount of penalties taken versus drawn, with lower being better) with a -12, and leads defensemen in takeaways.

Maker Looking For A Second Trophy With Better Stats

Maker has consistently ranked in the top ten in Norris Trophy voting in his first four seasons. In the past three seasons, he has been in the top three and won his first Norris Trophy for his 2021-2022 season. That season, he scored 28 goals and 58 assists for 86 points in 77 games and didn’t even have the best stats out of the other candidates.

Makar came in second in points by a defenseman that season behind Roman Josi with 96 but had a better plus/minus of plus-48 to plus-13, better Defensive Point Share (DPS) of 6.8 to 5.2, and overall better Point Share of 15.3 to 13.9 with Makar winning by a 1.28 vote percentage. This season could look the same in a race with Hughes, as Hughes could finish with slightly better stats, but Makar could continue his current pace and break that season’s production.

When Makar won the Norris, he produced 34 points in the first 35 games that season and would finish the season playing another 25 games and scoring 32 points. Currently, Makar is on pace for 19 goals and 83 assists for 103 points, which would have him not break his goal record of 28 but smash his assists by almost double. “On pace” is not always something to rely on as it’s just a metric to calculate the current pace of a player’s play, but every player can get hurt, sick, and go through slumps.

If Makar stays on the estimated pace, it would put him in elite territory, making him the 11th player to put up 100 points and win the Norris Trophy and making him the eighth-highest-scoring defenseman to win it, beating out last season’s winner, Erik Karlsson by two points.

Reliance On Avalanche’s System

The key to the Avalanche’s recent success has been their prolific offense. They are currently ranked second in Goals For at 150 goals, second in Goals For Per Game at 3.66, and eighth in power play percentage at 24.4 percent. With Makar’s Point Share number at 6.5 (an estimate of the number of points contributed by a player), just behind MacKinnon at 7.1 and ahead of Rantanen at 5.3, it’s clear the offense runs through these players just as it has through their history with the team.

It’s clear that Makar, with his recent play and how this team is constructed, will be one of the best defensemen in the NHL as long as he is healthy. He possesses a high-end hockey IQ, makes smart decisions to get the puck up the ice, is self-aware, and can play to his strengths in any situation. This will not only benefit the Avalanche as the season marches on, but also his Norris Trophy aspirations.