Dallas Stars May Be Team to Beat for 2024 Stanley Cup

Some teams are top-heavy, but not the Stars. Their top nine is one of the best in the NHL, giving them the balance Cup contenders need. The second line of Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin strengthens their depth, as all three players have 20-plus goals and 50-plus points. Marchment has enjoyed a bounce-back season after struggling in his first year with the Stars in 2022-23. And Duchene has fit in seamlessly after signing a one-year deal with the team during the offseason. 

But wait, the Stars’ depth doesn’t stop there. Wyatt Johnston is turning into a star and has built off his solid rookie season in 2022-23; the 20-year-old center has 32 goals and 65 points in 79 games. His wingers, Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven, are impressing, too. Benn has 21 goals and 59 points, while Stankoven — another Stars draft pick — has 14 points in 21 contests since getting called up from the AHL. 

All three of these lines are well above water in xG%, too. The line of Benn, Johnston and Stankoven has been excellent, as they have a 61.56 xG% in 197 minutes together. If the Stars go into the playoffs with them as their third line, I’m not sure many teams can compete with that. But it’s not just their forward group that impresses. Their blue line also has the depth for a Cup run. 

Harley & Tanev Have Strengthened Stars Defense

The Stars’ defense was a bit of a question mark heading into the season, but it’s rounded itself out with Thomas Harley having a breakout campaign and the acquisition of Chris Tanev ahead of the trade deadline. That’s helped push Ryan Suter down the lineup into a third-pair role, something more suitable for where he is in his career. 

Harley had played 40 NHL games before 2023-24 but had only totaled five points. He is a former first-round pick, so a breakout isn’t necessarily a surprise. But the length to which he’s broken out has come out of nowhere. 

As of this writing, Harley has 15 goals and 46 points in 76 games. He’s shooting 10.7 percent, which is pretty high for a defenseman, but his impacts have been terrific. He’s been one of the better offensive defensemen in the NHL while maintaining a defensive presence, helping him stick on the top pair with Miro Heiskanen. 

Speaking of Heiskanen, he’s emerged as a legit top-pair defenseman in the NHL. He plays big minutes, averaging 24:31 of ice time a night, but he excels in those minutes and has excellent two-way impacts. Every team needs a top-pair defenseman of his caliber to make a Cup run, and the Stars have one in him. 

The Tanev addition also fit exactly what the Stars needed at the trade deadline. Their most glaring weakness was a right-handed shot who could play top-four minutes. Tanev has long been one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL, and that’s continued with the Stars, as his even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 2.5 since the trade. 

With Harley emerging and the addition of Tanev, the Stars now have Suter and Nils Lundkvist as their third pair. Suter was logging difficult top-pair minutes for the Stars a season ago, but with Harley emerging and Esa Lindell ahead of him on the depth chart, DeBoer can keep Suter sheltered and his minutes reduced on the third pair. Lundkvist is the ideal defenseman for a third-pair role, so that duo with Suter works well. 

Oettinger Rounding Into Form

The Vegas Golden Knights showed last season that with Adin Hill backstopping them, you don’t need an elite goaltender to win a Stanley Cup. You could make the same argument for the Colorado Avalanche in 2022 when Darcy Kuemper led them to their first Stanley Cup in 20 years. However, it doesn’t hurt to have one. 

While I would not call Jake Oettinger elite, he is a high-end netminder. There was about a two-month-long stretch this season where he was struggling mightily. That gave me pause about whether the Stars could run their way through the gauntlet that will be the Western Conference playoffs. But it appears those concerns have eased, as Oettinger is on a heater to close the regular season. 

After going through a 19-game stretch where he posted an .884 save percentage, Oettinger is playing some of his best hockey to close 2023-24. He’s 8-0-0 in his last eight appearances and has a .939 save percentage while saving 7.1 goals above expected across that stretch. If he plays like that in the postseason, it’ll be hard to argue against the Stars making a run. 

Not only do the Stars have one of the most balanced rosters in the NHL, but their special teams units both rank in the top 10; their power play sixth, and their penalty kill eighth. They’re a dominant five-on-five team and have improved their numbers a bit over their previous 25 games, so they’re firing on all cylinders. 

The Western Conference playoffs will not be easy. The Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Vancouver Canucks and Oilers will all present challenges that will make it a gauntlet. But based on how the Stars are playing, their balanced lineup, and Oettinger rounding into form, they look like the team to beat in the West and perhaps the NHL. 

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey