Five teams that are overperforming halfway through the 2023-24 NHL season

Every year, there are teams that surprise us and do better than we expected. Sometimes, it’s a team that no one saw coming, but they’ve actually put in the work and are legitimately good. But just as frequently, and sometimes more frequently, it’s a team that isn’t actually any better than they were before but just found the bounces ending up in their favor. It’s a part of the sport, but it doesn’t make for a reliable way to win and basically always ends up normalizing in the long term.

Since we’ve reached the halfway mark of the season, I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some of the teams that are doing better than they’ve actually played this season. Whether it’s a bad team lucking themselves into a playoff spot or a good team looking unstoppable because of the percentages, there are a few scenarios at play here, so let’s dive in.

Boston Bruins

Record: 26-8-9 (3rd)
5v5 PDO: 1.021 (t-3rd)
5v5 GF% to xGF%: +5.88% (3rd)

After the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, as well as the departures of Dmitry Orlov, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, Nick Foligno and many more, a lot of the hockey world wasn’t expecting the Bruins to be anywhere close to what they did last season, some even thinking they’d struggle to hold down a playoff spot. And yet, here they are again, being annoyingly competitive and hovering around the top of the league. They already have as many losses as they did last season, so don’t expect anything record-setting, but they continue to look like a dominant team. Emphasis on looking like one.

They’ve been getting a lot of bounces this season, which is surprising considering I was anticipating a slight regression in their underlying numbers after overperforming last year, which is expected when you have the kind of season they had where a lot of players had career years. Their shooting percentage is more middle of the pack, but it’s the performance of their goalies that’s really keeping them at such a high level this year, with the second-best save percentage in the league. Linus Ullmark has been closer to league average with his .916 save percentage while Jeremy Swayman is having career year at .922, but both have been transforming a Bruins team that ranks 15th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes to a team that looks elite defensively with the third best 5v5 goals against per 60. In fact, Ullmark and Swayman rank eighth and ninth among goalies in 5v5 goals saved above expected with 14.11 and 14.04, respectively.

That’s not to say that the Bruins aren’t good. They’re 15th in 5v5 expected goal share, so they’re still a solid team and are definitely a team that deserves to be in the playoff conversation. They’re just not a team that should be in third place in the league, so don’t be shocked if they regress a little bit in the second half of the season. That said, they already have regressed somewhat after a hot start by going 13-7-7 in their last 27 games, but all those overtime losses are still a sign that they’re getting some good luck.

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 23-16-5 (11th)
5v5 PDO: 1.021 (t-3rd)
5v5 GF% to xGF%: +5.34% (4th)

After a couple straight seasons of hovering around the playoff race, at least in the early-going, the Red Wings went the bold route in the 2023 offseason and brought in Alex DeBrincat to give them a big time goal-scorer, and then added even more firepower partway through the season by adding in Patrick Kane. It’s certainly worked, giving the team a plethora of scoring threats and a potent power play.

In fact, it’s worked a little too well. Particularly in the first few weeks of the season, this team was shooting the lights out, and while that’s calmed down, they’re still scoring more than they probably should. With the second-best shooting percentage in the league, it’s turned an offense that generates the fourth-fewest 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes in the league into a team that scores at the third-highest rate in the league. That is a drastic difference, one that doesn’t show up more in their underlying numbers only because their goaltending has been slightly-below average to balance it out a bit and only have them in 11th in the league. The likes of DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, or Lucas Raymond have the talent to somewhat justify shooting above league average, but names like Robby Fabbri, Michael Rasmussen, Joe Veleno, J.T. Compher, Jake Walman, Andrew Copp, and Klim Kostin don’t exactly jump off the page as elite finishers. Even Kane’s 18.75 shooting percentage is a lot higher than it should be, especially at this stage of his career.

So what does this mean? Basically, the Wings are a team that should be in the lottery conversation, and yet they find themselves in third in the Atlantic Division at the moment. It doesn’t guarantee that they will regress this season, as we’ve seen plenty of teams sustain this kind of luck over the course of a full season, but to somewhat take a line from a song of a certain Detroit-based rapper, the real Red Wings are not standing up right now.

Montreal Canadiens

Record: 19-18-7 (24th)
5v5 PDO: 1.013 (5th)
5v5 GF% to xGF%: +3.97% (5th)

Hold up, how is a team that is 24th in the league and barely in the playoff race overperforming this season? The Habs are now in their third season of inadequacy and haven’t really threatened for a playoff spot throughout any of it outside of the first few weeks of the season when they win a few more games than they lose, so what about this season has shown us that they’re doing better than expected?

The truth is, the Canadiens should still be worse than what they are this season. With a 45.54% 5v5 expected goal share, they’re putting up numbers similar to a lottery contender. They aren’t quite as bad as Chicago or San Jose, but they also aren’t better than the next tier of Anaheim, Columbus and Ottawa, with the fifth-worst share overall. But, they have the third-best save percentage in the league, and some Carey Price-esque performances from Sam Montembeault and Jake Allen have managed to salvage a Habs defense with the fourth-worst 5v5 expected goals against per 60 and allow the team to be tied for the seventh-best 5v5 goals against per 60. Allen’s been solid with a .901 SV% and 3.91 5v5 GSAx, but it’s Montembeault that Montreal really needs to thank, with a .910 SV% and a 9.89 5v5 GSAx. Both have been thrown into a brutal defensive environment, and yet they’re coming out looking not all that bad.

It’s good to know that the Habs have solid goaltending, especially in Montembeault after locking him up to a three-year extension earlier this season, but this is the worst timing for it to happen. It hasn’t exactly made this team playoff-caliber, and it’s ruining their chances of a top pick, especially when they haven’t seen a lot of progress from their prospects so far. Macklin Celebrini is exactly the kind of player Montreal needs, and it’s safe to say this overperformance has cost them a strong chance at that.

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 29-11-4 (2nd)
5v5 PDO: 1.047 (1st)
5v5 GF% to xGF%: +10.69% (1st)

Well this one’s a bit of a layup. The talking point with the Canucks’ success all season has been about how the team isn’t playing nearly well enough to justify their record, and after a quick look at their underlying numbers, it’s easy to see why. They sit in first in PDO and are the team that has outperformed their expected goal share the most, and while they are separated from a lot of the league in those regards, there is at least one other team in similar territory (but more on them in a second).

It’s not that the Canucks are a bad team, it’s just that they aren’t one of the best teams in the league. They’re 13th in the league in 5v5 expected goal share at 51.54%, which is at the level of a playoff team, just more one that is in the Wildcard conversation. Instead, their 5v5 goal share is the second-best at 62.23%, and that’s thanks to both the highest shooting percentage in the league and the fifth-highest save percentage in the league. Of course, they have some talent to justify that, particularly in Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko, but they also have a bunch of players overperforming. Casey DeSmith is having his best season when he gets into the crease, and on top of Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller overperforming a bit, they also have players like Sam Lafferty, Nils Hoglander, Dakota Joshua, Pius Suter and Ilya Mikheyev shooting way better than they normally do.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Canucks kept to this level throughout the regular season due to the fact that they do have some talent on the team that can actually maintain this level of play, on top of the fact that they’ve built up a decent cushion over the rest of their division that it should negate any regression that occurs, if it even does this season. But let’s just say, I wouldn’t be shocked if they are upset in the first round if they end up facing a team like the Edmonton Oilers or the Los Angeles Kings.

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 29-10-4 (1st)
5v5 PDO: 1.031 (2nd)
5v5 GF% to xGF%: +10.32% (2nd)

There was another team that I alluded to being at a similar to the Canucks, and it may surprise some to find out that it’s the Winnipeg Jets. There’s been a lot of talk about their improvement this season, especially defensively, and while they are better, it’s not to this level. They’re only 10th in 5v5 expected goals for per 60, seventh in 5v5 expected goals against per 60, and eighth in 5v5 expected goals share, and yet they sit seventh, first and first in those respective stats for actual goals.

We’ll start with the current streak the Jets are in the middle of that’s captured a lot of headlines. They’ve gone 33 straight games without allowing more than three goals in a game, and after allowing 19 goals in their first four games of the season, they’ve only allowed more than three in a game twice all season. That’s an incredible achievement, but there’s also no way you can pull off something like that without a little bit of luck. Doing that 37 times over a 43-game stretch is certainly feasible if you’re an elite defensive team, but doing it 33 times in a row is incredible luck with how drastically single-game sample sizes can swing, as it takes just one night of bad luck for that streak to end. That’s also a testament to how good Connor Hellebuyck has been this season, as he’s been the runaway Vezina candidate with a .925 SV% and a 23.96 GSAx. It does contribute to that luck, but that’s something that we’re used to in Winnipeg, as Hellebuyck has carried the Jets to the playoffs on many occasions, it’s just that this time he’s got a better defense in front of him.

Another thing that’s pretty normal for Winnipeg is seeing their players outshoot their expected goals. They only have the eighth-highest 5v5 shooting%, so it’s not egregious, but they’ve always seen their top players have higher shooting percentages than normal, although Gabriel Vilardi doesn’t have quite the same precedence of maintaining that kind of luck (outside of last season) like someone like Kyle Connor can. All said, this is probably the best team out of the five on this list, so there are significantly fewer concerns, especially since it’s something they’ve done in the past in much worse situations.

All goals above expected stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey.
All other advanced metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.