Updates on Frederik Andersen Give the Carolina Hurricanes Optimism and Hard Decisions

Expectations for Andersen

So the report from the Hurricanes that Andersen will begin on-ice activities is positive….but also cryptic. There were previous reports that Andersen would be returning and then everything sort of went quiet. And there is not much detail. Is Andersen engaging in practices? Is he taking shots from the goaltending coach? Or is he just skating?

In a best-case scenario, Andersen starts taking part in practices, returns to play and returns in top shape. But outside of a complete “no idea on what the future holds”, Hurricanes fans should realistically expect Andersen to remain out for the 2023-24 season. But without more information, it’s very hard to say. It’s certainly positive for Andersen to see him getting back on the ice. However, this puts management in a somewhat tough position for trade deadline plans.

Why Andersen is a Monkey Wrench for the Carolina Hurricanes Goaltending

As positive as it is to hear that Andersen is returning to the ice, it also makes trade deadline plans somewhat tricky. Don Waddell stated in December that they were looking at upgrading the goalie position but that they believe in Andersen and Kochetkov long-term. Every action or inaction at the trade deadline is a risk. And ultimately, analysts and fans alike will look back at the end of the year and applaud the Stanley Cup Winning GM for the moves he made or didn’t make and analyze what the other GMs could have done better. It’s not completely betting, but it also isn’t super far off.

Carolina has seemed to operate under that mindset the last few years (at the frustration of many fans). While they were reportedly in on Timo Meier last trade deadline, they lost out and instead made low-cost moves for Shayne Gostisbehere and Jesse Puljujarvi. The organization operates very analytically and is why decisions on risk versus reward become very mathematical at times. But when is it worth just taking a big risk? Carolina already had questions about what to do in net and moving into the playoffs with Kochetkov, Raanta, and Martin has its own risks. And even if Andersen does return, will he return to the level we saw last playoffs? Don Waddell has decisions to make with a few different options.

Option 1: Stay the Course on Carolina Hurricanes Goaltending

The first option for Carolina is to stay the course. Run with Kochetkov, Raanta, and Martin and hope that maybe Andersen makes a return.

The Benefits

Let’s start with the positives of this move. For one, Carolina does not give up any assets to acquire a goalie that they may be able to use on a different position of need. With other potential needs like some scoring punch and depth, the Hurricanes can save trade assets. In an absolute best case scenario, Andersen returns for the playoffs or right before healthy. He returns to the form we saw last playoffs or better. And he carries Carolina on a deep run. I know people get frustrated with some of salary cap circumventions teams have done in the past by utilizing LTIR to have cap room at the deadline, only for the player to return in the playoffs off of LTIR. Is it right? Is it fair? Maybe not. But it’s not illegal as the CBA is set up so if you can, why not take advantage of it? It’s not like the team WANTED Andersen to be out all year.

But even if Andersen can’t return, the current trio could potentially carry the team. Raanta and Martin could provide decent depth. Kochetkov could become a star goalie the team seems to be counting on. Remember a certain rookie goalie that helped Carolina in 2006…..

The Risks

But this option comes with a lot of risks. For one, the chance of Andersen returning does not seem very high. So the question becomes, can Kochetkov, Raanta, and Martin actually carry the load? It seems like a tall ask. Or if one of them gets hurt, where is the team then? That is always a risk for anyone but is Raanta, Martin, and Perets the best for a team trying to go deep in the playoffs? And then there is the possibility that Andersen returns and frankly isn’t very strong. He’s a professional and has shown great ability in the past. But anyone spending time off is always a risk for some adjustment to get back to their prime. As this has shown to be a position of concern this year, and due to the fact that as an individual the goalie holds the most single importance to the game, this approach seems a bit questionable. Not to mention the meltdown if staying the course doesn’t work.

Option 2: Trade for a Starting Goaltender

Another option is for the position of the Carolina Hurricanes goaltending to go “all-in.” If you are analyzing the game by risk, rewards, odds and chances of winning, why not go all in and give yourself the best possible chance to win?

The Benefits

The benefits to this move are fairly obvious. You make a strong, serious move to get a guy who can step in and take control right away with a likelihood of giving the team the best chance for a deep playoff run. In addition, a move like this would likely be for a player with term versus a true rental. Here you are looking at names more like John Gibson, Jacob Markstrom, and maybe Elvis Merzlikins. Not only does a move like this provide the team with the benefit of the new goalie’s ability, but it also shows the team that management believes in them and wants to give them the best chance to win. It also sends the same message to the fans. A move like this could also set up the Hurricanes goaltending for years assuming that Kochetkov stays put.

The Risk

As much as some of the benefits of this move are obvious, so are the risks. For starters, to get someone that can be a true starter will take a lot of assets. Carolina actually has a decent amount of future assets but has to be careful about trading pieces that are currently helping the team. And then you give up assets with no guarantee that this player will actually be the difference between a Championship or missing the playoffs altogether. While above we explained the scenario of the team giving themselves the best odds, it also comes with the highest cost.

Depending on which camp you are in, fortunately or unfortunately, this does not seem like a move management will make. Based on Waddell’s comments on Kochetkov and Andersen above, Andersen’s progression and the cost it would take combined with management’s past habits, it seems like swinging for the fence on a goalie may be out of reach. Time will only tell.

Option 3: Trade for a Reliable Backup

The other, and arguably smartest move, is for Carolina to trade for a reliable backup or 1B goaltender. The names that come to mind here include Marc-Andre Fleury and Jake Allen.

The Benefits

The positives of this move revolve around the idea that it is the true middle ground of the options. The cost to obtain a goalie of this calibre should not be too high. Most likely a goalie would go out in the trade not named Kochetkov so there would still be a trio. We previously discussed the options for Carolina with Martin in an article here and how this might come into play.

But with this move, the team is bringing in depth and most likely a player that can “hold down the fort” in a backup role or in that 1B type slot. This move is likely a rental which would not really but against the plans with Andersen. And even if Andersen did return, having a stronger depth piece over Raanta or Martin is not a bad thing. There’s another benefit to this move too that specifically looks at someone like Fleury. Fleury is a tried and true veteran who has “been there, done that.” He was won Cups and knows what it takes to win. With someone like that mentoring the younger Kochetkov while also giving the team that experience this season, the value may actually extend more longer term than it seems.

The Risks

The risks of a move like this may not actually be large for the Carolina Hurricanes goaltending situation. Yeah, you give up assets, but it shouldn’t be too much. Of course, as with any rental, you most likely are getting a goalie for just a few months. There’s a higher risk that the player comes in and is terrible and you were better off staying put. But that would be the case with anyone. Then there is the risk that Andersen comes back and the team has four goalies. But then waivers becomes an option. The biggest risk here seems like the simple fact that you are actually not giving yourself the best odds for improvement. But you also aren’t giving up as much. Conversely, for a team wanting to win-now, is getting a backup goalie enough?

Every move or lack thereof will come with it’s own set of risks and rewards. And nobody has a crystal ball. But Carolina wants to win and win now without completely sacrificing the future. They seem to be at that point where the former should weigh slightly heavier than the latter. But it’s another question how management will move forward when it comes to addressing goaltending.