Will Matt Barzal's new contract pay off for the Islanders?

Congrats to Mathew Barzal on his gleaming eight-year, $73.2M contract extension with the New York Islanders. But I’m having difficulty believing it will be looked upon favorably when completed in 2031. 

To put it bluntly: I think Barzal’s new contract is a bad deal. Not for the player, mind you. Good for Barzal. But I believe the Islanders will feel the sting of that $9.15M salary cap hit for years to come.

It’s not a question of whether Barzal is a great hockey player. He absolutely is. I think he’s the most electrifying player on the Islanders. But what troubles me is that the Islanders are the definition of a lunch pail team. 

New York has a lot of good players that work hard. But there’s simply a dearth of elite talent. Ever since John Tavares left the Islanders in 2018, I don’t think Barzal has played alongside anyone truly capable of unlocking his offensive potential.

Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello struck out on the open market this summer. And he couldn’t trade for anyone with the speed and creativity to keep up with Barzal. How will that be different in the coming years?

With Barzal’s extension, is Lamoriello paying a premium to retain a young star – one of the only marketable players the Islanders have – in hopes of other free agents signing on to flank him? 

The Islanders are tight against the salary cap as is. And if any personnel moves are going to be made, the team must shed some of the bloated veteran contracts Lamoriello has given out since taking over as general manager in May 2018. 

The Islanders will have ten players making between $4-7M in 2023-24. Five of those deals belong to players over the age of 30.

And then there’s Barzal coming in with a $9.15M cap hit – a staggering sum for a player that hasn’t eclipsed the point-per-game mark since his rookie campaign in 2017-18.

I can palate a $9M-plus cap hit if the player routinely pots 35 goals a year. But Barzal has only cracked the 20-goal mark once in his career. That happened during Barzal’s rookie season when he found the back of the net 22 times playing with Tavares.

I think what you see is what you get with Barzal. He’s been in the NHL for five years and his production has remained steady. I don’t expect a significant uptick in his performance unless Lamoriello lands someone like Patrick Kane via trade. And a trade of that magnitude is a longshot at best.

Recently there’s been a spate of eight-year, big-money contracts handed out to young NHLers. But the difference is that most of them have gone to players still on entry-level contracts. Teams project what a player will evolve into, rather than pay for previous performance. And with those deals come the expectation that the contract will turn into a value over time for the team.

I think those contracts have also been partially fueled by the expectation of the salary cap rising during the coming years. Teams want to lock up their core pieces before the price increases. Maybe that’s part of the Islanders’ reasoning with the Barzal extension – as salaries rise, the deal will play itself out in favor of the team.

The problem is I just can’t see that happening. In no way do I foresee Barzel’s $9.15M cap hit becoming a value for the Islanders. Sure, he’s in the prime of his career. He’ll be 26 when the contract kicks in next season, and 34 when it’s finished. But is Barzal suddenly going to find another 20 points – or goals – per season to justify his salary? I doubt it.

Look at some of the comparables. Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou of the St. Louis Blues both put up over a point a game last season. Both scored over 20 goals. And both forwards just finished a two-year bridge deal. This offseason, the duo was rewarded with matching eight-year deals carrying an $8.125M cap hit.

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point is about to start an eight-year contract. The cap hit? $9.5M. But Point has scored a goal in nearly half of the 417 NHL games that he’s played. And he’s been lights out during the Stanley Cup playoffs for the Lightning. When he’s playing center, Point can drive the play single-handedly. That’s something Barzal has yet to show during his career.

Really what it boils down to is this: I think Barzal’s new contract is bloated. It’s probably a million dollars a year higher than what it should be. And the hard part for Islander fans is that Barzal isn’t alone. There’s no shortage of overpayment happening on Long Island.

For a team like the Islanders that’s desperately in need of cap flexibility, Barzal’s new deal isn’t a solution. It’s part of the problem.