Will the division-leading Stars take a swing at the trade deadline?

One week to go. We’ve been counting down to the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline for the last two months with at least one trade-focused story every day leading up to deadline day.

We’re going to shine a light on the Dallas Stars, who have been perched near the top of the Western Conference standings all season long.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 7 Days

DALLAS STARS
Current Record: 30-16-12, 72 points (1st in Central Division)
General Manager: Jim Nill (10th season)
Head Coach: Pete DeBoer (1st season)
Captain: Jamie Benn (10th full season)

Last Year: Lost to Calgary Flames (4-3) in Western Conference quarterfinal.

Goals For: 3.21 per game (14th)
Goals Against: 2.57 per game (2nd)
Power Play: 23.1 percent (10th)
Penalty Kill: 83.2 percent (3rd)

Key Additions
Coach Pete DeBoer – Hired on June 21
RD Nils Lundkvist – Acquired from N.Y. Rangers on Sept. 19
LW Mason Marchment – Signed to four-year, $18 million contract on July 13
RD Colin Miller – Signed to two-year, $3.7 million contract on July 13

Key Subtractions
RD John Klingberg – Signed a one-year, $7 million contract in Anaheim on July 29
RW Alexander Radulov – Returned to Russia’s KHL as a free agent with Ak Bars Kazan
LW Michael Raffl – Signed with Lausanne (Swiss NLA) as a free agent
F Vladislav Namestnikov – Signed one-year, $2.5 million contract in Tampa Bay on July 13
LD Andrej Sekera – Announced retirement on July 26

Trainer’s Table
LW Joel Kiviranta – Out since Feb. 6 with a lower-body injury, expected back in 1-2 weeks
G Scott Wedgewood – Out since Feb. 18, considered day-to-day, possible to return Saturday

The Stars have been one of the healthiest teams in the NHL this season. Not only have they had lineup consistency, only using 25 skaters, but 13 of their 18 skaters in the lineup have played 56 or more of the team’s 58 games. Denis Gurianov (16 games), Roope Hintz (8 games), Nils Lundkvist (7 games) and Miro Heiskanen (3 games) have been their most significant absences.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s often helpful to take a look back at last year’s deadline activity to see what information could be gleaned about this year’s approach.

March 21, 2022
To Dallas: Vladislav Namestnikov
To Detroit: 2024 4th Round Pick, 50 percent retained

March 20, 2022
To Dallas: Scott Wedgewood
To Arizona: 2023 third-round pick

GM Jim Nill was mostly quiet last year on Deadline Day, choosing only to add Namestnikov for a late-round pick in the last hours before the clock struck three. The far more prescient move was going after the ‘Wedgewall’ the day prior. Star netminder Jake Oettinger went down with an injury in April, thrusting Wedgewood into some critical games for Dallas. He delivered with a 3-1-3 mark and a .913 save percentage that helped secure a playoff spot for the Stars. The points earned with Wedgewood in net helped Dallas avoid Colorado in the first round of the playoffs – the so-called “waste of eight days” as coined by Flames coach Darryl Sutter. Not that it mattered, as the Stars’ playoff run lasted only a couple of days longer before being extinguished by Sutter’s Flames.

Deadline Posture: Cautious Buyers

A quick look at the standings and you’d see a Stars team in first place in the division, second place in the West, and assume that the posture of an organization in that position would be to uncover any stone to improve and try to make a run at a Stanley Cup. That isn’t necessarily the case with these Stars.

It’s not that the Stars won’t attempt to improve. GM Jim Nill keeps his finger on the pulse as well as anyone, monitoring the market and prices.

But you could make the argument that the Stars made their trade deadline move back in September when they spent their first-round pick on cost-controlled defenseman Nils Lundkvist from the New York Rangers. They have prospects and other draft capital, but the question is – outside of Timo Meier or Patrick Kane, how many difference makers exist on the market to bolster Dallas’ offense?

That’s where the issue lies. Because the Stars are stout on the back-end. They’ve got a superstar in Miro Heiskanen and a deep, mobile unit that defends well. They don’t give up a lot of shots against, scoring chances against or high-danger scoring chances against. And then there is Vezina Trophy candidate Jake Oettinger in net, shutting the door with a .925 save percentage and serving as their best penalty killer. There are no issues on the back-end or in the crease; the Stars have horses and they’re all performing well.

The issue starts to bubble up front. Outside of Jason Robertson’s line with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, one of the best lines in the league, the Stars lack players who can reliably fill the net with regularity. Jamie Benn has turned back the clock and increased production. Tyler Seguin finds himself on the wing more often than the middle and his offensive production has continued to sag. And then the Stars have relied on younger players such as rookie Wyatt Johnston and Ty Dellandrea to help fill the void.

The Stars have drafted and developed as well or better than anyone in the NHL. Nill’s 2017 draft class – Heiskanen at No. 3, Oettinger at No. 26 and Robertson at No. 39 – will go down as the stuff of legend, one of the best all-time draft classes by a single team in league history.

Dellandrea has been good, Johnston is already been a surprise contributor as a 19-year-old and Logan Stankoven is on the way. Their scouting staff also mined Matej Blumel after he didn’t sign with the Edmonton Oilers as a draft pick after what was believed to be an off-ice issue.

So, for a team that is firmly in the middle of the pack in generating quality looks at even-strength (17th in shots, 13th in scoring chances and 14th in high-danger chances), they are also below league average in converting at 17th in the league in even-strength goals. Their power play is strong. But they need a clear difference-maker at even strength. And with the prices for rentals through the roof, outside of Meier, the Stars would seem to do well to exercise caution and keep building for the near future. Because there are seemingly few players that the Stars could acquire that would vastly improve their chances to win.

Potential Targets

• James van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers: The Stars have been linked to ‘JvR’ and that makes sense. He will be a relatively low-cost acquisition that can provide scoring at even strength, be a net-front presence, and contribute to the second unit power play.
• Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues: Barbashev netted 26 goals last year. He’s struggled to produce at the same rate this year but is likely in the second-round pick range and a lot of teams believe he has more to give than what he’s shown.
• Tanner Jeannot, Nashville Predators: Not entirely certain that the Preds would want to deal with a divisional rival, but Jeannot would be an intriguing fit. He collected 24 goals last year, competes, has a big frame and can contribute to the penalty kill. Plus the Stars could afford to re-sign him with some contracts coming off the books.
• Jakub Vrana, Detroit Red Wings: Whether it’s now or through a buyout this summer, Vrana doesn’t seem long for Detroit. Nill obviously keeps close tabs on the Red Wings. Vrana has dealt with what is reportedly a substance abuse issue. He scores at an elite goals-per-60 rate. Would the Stars take a swing on him?
• Gustav Nyquist, Columbus Blue Jackets: Ah, yes, a former Red Wing. Nyquist produced in the playoffs after going to San Jose a couple of years back. With his current injury, he’s basically a free asset for any team and of zero cap consequence as he won’t need activating until the playoffs. He’s more of a distributor than a finisher though.
• Colin White, Florida Panthers: White likely won’t move the needle, but there is a decent chance the Panthers end up moving him before the deadline. He has some game, he will arrive motivated ready to earn his next deal, and he won’t cost much to add.

Trade Chips

• Draft Board: The Stars traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Rangers for Nils Lundkvist. They also traded their third-round pick last year for Scott Wedgewood. They have their full complement of second-round picks.
• Cap Space: Dallas is in dollars-in/dollars-out mode, and would probably prefer to not move a player off their roster if possible. One option is to pay to move goaltender Anton Khudobin, who is buried in AHL Texas with $2.02 million still counting against the Stars’ cap.
• C Mavrik Bourque: The Stars’ 2020 first-round pick (No. 30 overall) has posted 29 points in 48 games in Texas in his first professional season. He’s coming along nicely but isn’t projected to be a game-breaker.
• LD Thomas Harley: Harley was Dallas’ top pick the year before Bourque (2019). He was called upon to play 34 NHL games last year with the big club but hasn’t been back since.